In wake of war, Lebanon is weaker and Israel is stronger

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Thomas Friedman | • Published May 13, 2007

Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made a remarkable statement last week. He praised Israel for conducting an inquiry into last year's war with Hezbollah - an inquiry that accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of "serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence."

Nasrallah was quoted by the BBC as saying Israelis "study their defeat in order to learn from it," in contrast with the Arab regimes that "do not probe, do not ask, do not form inquiry commissions, as if nothing has happened."

One has to be impressed by his honesty, but he did not take it all the way, since the Arab leader who most needs to be probed is Nasrallah himself. He started the war with Israel, which was a disaster for both sides. If there were an honest Arab League Inquiry Commission into the war, here is what it would say about him:

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters directed by Nasrallah abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in an unprovoked attack across the Lebanon-Israel border, on the pretext of seeking a prisoner exchange. This triggered a war that killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis. After interviewing all relevant parties, the Arab League Commission finds Nasrallah guilty of a serious failure of judgment, responsibility and prudence - for the following reasons.

1. Nasrallah demonstrated a total failure to anticipate Israel's response to his raid. He assumed Israel would carry out the same limited retaliation it had with previous raids. Wrong. He failed to take into account the changed circumstances in Israel. The kidnapping of an Israeli soldier in Gaza a few weeks earlier, plus the fact that a new chief of staff of the Israeli army, a new prime minister and a new defense minister had just taken office and all felt they were being tested, triggered an enormous Israeli response. About 1,200 Lebanese died because of this gross error in judgment.

2. In unilaterally launching a war against Israel, without a vote of the Lebanese cabinet - of which Hezbollah is a member - the militia did grievous harm to Lebanon's fragile democracy and democratization in the Arab world. All of the fears that if you let an Islamist party into government it will not respect the rules of the game were fulfilled by Hezbollah.