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UPDATED: The UW Poll: R-71 up, I-1033 trails

• Published October 27, 2009

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The Washington Poll released results today (Tuesday) that show the left-of-center viewpoint is winning on both statewide ballot measures Nov. 3. Referendum 71's expansion of gay couples' rights is passing and Initiative 1033's cap on government revenue growth is failing.

Referendum 71 expands the number of rights for registered domestic partners to include all the state rights of married couples but without actually conferring marriage. Initiative 1033 seeks to cap revenue growth for state, city and county governments, using excess revenues to lower property taxes.

The poll, done by a social-research school at the University of Washington that has a good track record of being right about election results, showed R-71 is winning by a 56 percent to 39 percent margin among registered voters. The edge was 57-38 among likely voters (likely voters were those who have sent in ballots already or said they voted in November 2007).

Pollsters interviewed 724 registered voters during Oct. 14-26 and had an error margin of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The interviews were done in live, person-to-person calls, and roughly a quarter of those polled had already turned in ballots.

In contrast to other pollsters' results that showed it winning by as much as a 2-to-1 margin, I-1033 is losing in the UW Poll. Registered voters rejected it by a 46 percent to 41 percent margin, with 13 percent undecided.

Likely voters said they intend to vote against it by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin.

Sponsor Tim Eyman wants to limit growth in governments' general-fund revenues to a factor of inflation and population growth, using any excess to reduce property taxes.

The results could reflect that opponents are besieging the airwaves with television ads warning of I-1033's impacts on schools and health care.

I thought it was interesting that Republicans, Independents and men said they favor the measure, but Democrats and women as demographic groups oppose it. Those without college education favored I-1033 by one percentage point, while those with college degrees opposed it 50 percent to 41 percent.

Matt Barreto, a political science professor at the UW and co-director of the school's Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race & Sexuality, said the R-71 results match closely the trend of growing public support for recognizing same-sex relationships that his polling over three years has shown.

The UW Poll's margin of approval for R-71 is roughly same as the 53 percent to 36 percent margin in a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll done for the Approve 71 campaign and released late Monday.

If R-71 passes, Senate Bill 5688 would be enacted into law, giving all the state rights conferred on married couples to registered domestic partners, including same-sex couples and heterosexual couples with one partner age 62 or older.

Barreto said he thinks R-71 is headed for a "large victory." Higher turnout in King County could occur because of interest in the King County executive race and Seattle mayoral race. That higher turnout, especially if it is in Seattle, helps R-71 and hurts I-1033, Barreto said.

The UW Poll also reported today that Democrat Dow Constantine is beating presumed Republican Susan Hutchison in the nonpartisan county executive race, 45 percent to 32 percent. A whopping 22 percent of polled voters were undecided. Other polling has showed Hutchison winning.

In the mayor's race, Joe Mallahan is beating Mike McGinn 39 percent to 32 percent among registered voters with 28 percent undecided.

Past Washington Poll results have been pretty accurate. By the UW's count, the poll's pre-election survey results matched the eventual voting results in all three polled ballot measures in November 2008 and four polled measures in 2007.