UPDATED: The UW Poll: R-71 up, I-1033 trails

• Published October 27, 2009

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Matt Barreto, a political science professor at the UW and co-director of the school's Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race & Sexuality, said the R-71 results match closely the trend of growing public support for recognizing same-sex relationships that his polling over three years has shown.

The UW Poll's margin of approval for R-71 is roughly same as the 53 percent to 36 percent margin in a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll done for the Approve 71 campaign and released late Monday.

If R-71 passes, Senate Bill 5688 would be enacted into law, giving all the state rights conferred on married couples to registered domestic partners, including same-sex couples and heterosexual couples with one partner age 62 or older.

Barreto said he thinks R-71 is headed for a "large victory." Higher turnout in King County could occur because of interest in the King County executive race and Seattle mayoral race. That higher turnout, especially if it is in Seattle, helps R-71 and hurts I-1033, Barreto said.

The UW Poll also reported today that Democrat Dow Constantine is beating presumed Republican Susan Hutchison in the nonpartisan county executive race, 45 percent to 32 percent. A whopping 22 percent of polled voters were undecided. Other polling has showed Hutchison winning.

In the mayor's race, Joe Mallahan is beating Mike McGinn 39 percent to 32 percent among registered voters with 28 percent undecided.

Past Washington Poll results have been pretty accurate. By the UW's count, the poll's pre-election survey results matched the eventual voting results in all three polled ballot measures in November 2008 and four polled measures in 2007.

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