Pac-10 tourney defies easy prognosis

One of the oddest and most open of Pacific-10 Conference men's basketball seasons could be followed this week by - what else? - one of the oddest and most open Pac-10 tournaments.

That was the consensus of several league coaches during a Tuesday conference call.

California took the regular season title despite five league losses – matching the most conference defeats by a Pac-10 champion. At the other end of the bracket, Washington State’s six league wins established a record high for a last-place finisher.

Adding to the oddity, only nine teams will play in this Pac-10 tournament while Southern California sits out the postseason as a self-imposed penalty for recruiting irregularities under former coach Tim Floyd.

The conference adapted by dropping its usual opening-day doubleheader in favor of a single game at 8 p.m. today, when No. 8 seed Oregon (15-15 overall) meets No. 9 Washington State (16-14) at Staples Center in Los Angeles.

The other seven teams swing into action Thursday.

But which two will be left standing for the championship game at 3 p.m. Saturday seems unusually up for grabs.

“There’s definitely a number of teams that can (win it),” Arizona coach Sean Miller said. “I don’t want to take anything away from Cal. They’re experienced, and what they accomplished in the regular season speaks for itself. But you look at how both Washington and Arizona State are playing, you look at so many other teams beyond them. … That’s what makes March magical, especially this year’s conference tournament. (There) should be a lot of excitement and a lot of fun. There’s so much at stake for everybody.”

An automatic bid in the NCAA tournament awaits the Pac-10 tournament winner. And this season, no team enters with certainty that a Big Dance invitation awaits.

California has the best case for an at-large bid. In addition to the conference championship, the Golden Bears’ 20 Ratings Percentage Index is the highest in the league, and they’re the only Pac-10 team receiving votes in the Associated Press media poll and the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll.

However, coach Mike Montgomery takes nothing for granted.

“I don’t know what the prevailing wisdom is,” he said. “But probably a lot of people feel like we’ve got to go into the tournament and win some games or win it all to have a chance to go to the NCAA tournament.”

The next two seeds – Arizona State and Washington – each ended the regular season on a roll. The Sun Devils won eight of their last 10 games; and the Huskies won nine of their last 11.

Those runs have both teams back on “bracketology” bubbles. However, conventional wisdom says each might need at least two wins in this tournament to awake on Selection Sunday with a sense of confidence. And the pairings make that possible for more than one, because their paths would cross in the semifinals – if they get that far.

However, that is further than UW coach Lorenzo Romar is willing to look.

“I am not talking coach-talk when I say this: We’ve got to beat Oregon State,” he said. “Those four days go by so quickly. We’ve got to worry about Oregon State right now, and go from there.”

For every team below those top three, at-large bids seem out of reach. That means their only path to the NCAA tournament comes through winning the Pac-10 tournament.

For others, another win or two in Los Angeles might mean the difference between an NIT invitation and a CBI invitation, or between a CBI bid and sitting home.

The coaches think those incentives should fuel a hard-fought and fascinating eight games at Staples Center.

“I do feel that it’s as wide-open as it has ever been,” Oregon coach Ernie Kent said. “… I think there are nine of us now that feel like any of us can win it and get into the tournament. It’s just going to make for a very, very, very competitive Pac-10 tournament.”

don.ruiz@thenewstribune.com