The consumer-confidence data, which are reflected as a number, fell to 59 in the third quarter from 91 in the second. Fifty-nine is the second-lowest reading since the vitality index was created in the first quarter of 2008. After the economy crashed in the fourth quarter of 2008, consumer confidence was rated at 54.
Driving the third-quarter confidence data lower were concerns about the economy, the current election cycle and events in Europe, said Riley Moore, an associate professor of economics at Saint Martin’s. Moore and students in the school’s business program helped compile the vitality index by surveying 2,500 households. A Thurston County chief executive index also fell in the third quarter, down to 49 from 57 in the second quarter.
“There’s not a lot of optimism that things are turning around anytime soon,” Moore said.
Still, consumers think it’s an ideal time to purchase property, with 74 percent saying it’s a good time to buy a house. Those surveyed also said it was a good time to buy a major appliance and a car.
Selling a house continues to be viewed as a challenge, with 90 percent saying it was a bad time to try to sell property. This is likely due to the fact that home prices continue to fall.
Thurston County home prices have fallen every month through September, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data.
The state’s chief economist, Arun Raha, said fear and uncertainty are the two biggest drivers of declining consumer confidence.
“It’s fear about the unknown and uncertainty about the future,” he said.
Washington’s economy continues to grow, Raha said, but at such a slow rate that it’s difficult to tell. Still, the economy is moving in the right direction and, in time, consumers eventually will have to spend to replace household items, he said.
“People are sitting on their cash, but they don’t know what tomorrow will bring,” Raha said.
Rolf Boone: 360-754-5403
rboone@theolympian.com
www.theolympian.com/bizblog
