The Thurston County consumer confidence, chief executive confidence and small-business owner confidence data were unveiled Thursday as part of the Thurston County Economic Development Council’s 2011 regional economic forecast and innovation expo at Great Wolf Lodge in Grand Mound. About 300 people attended the daylong event, which included guest speakers and several of the region’s business owners.
Reflected as a number, fourth-quarter consumer confidence data rose to 70 from 59 in the third quarter. Fifty-nine is the second-lowest reading since consumer-confidence data tracking began the first quarter of 2008. After the economy crashed in the fourth quarter of 2008, consumer confidence was rated at 54. It has been as high as 102.
Saint Martin’s University associate professor of economics Riley Moore, who presented the data, said election season can create uncertainty among consumers. Moore and business students at the university help create the data by interviewing residents on a quarterly basis.
Consumers, though, still view the labor market as difficult – although they see it improving in the near future. Ninety percent say it’s a bad time to try to sell a house, but it is a much better time to buy a house or a major appliance.
Chief executive confidence rose, too, increasing to 52 in the fourth quarter from 49 in the third quarter. More encouraging is that 60 percent of CEOs expect future profits to come from increased demand, although 20 percent said it would come from reducing expenses, which could mean job losses, Moore said.
Chief executive confidence has been as high as 62.
Small-business owners, who were surveyed through the Thurston County Chamber, said confidence rose to 54 in the fourth quarter from 49 in the third quarter. Small-business owner confidence has been as high as 61. Similar to the chief executives, 58 percent of small-business owners expect future profits to come from increased demand, but a slightly higher percentage – 26 percent – expect to increase profits by reducing expenses. Once again, this might mean job losses.
Still, consumer confidence could continue its rise in the first quarter of the new year based on improving economic news. This week, the state announced that strong job growth helped lower statewide unemployment to 8.7 percent in November from 9.1 percent in October. More than 7,000 jobs were created in October and 12,000 more last month. Employment Security spokeswoman Sheryl Hutchison said it is not a one-month blip.
“It seems to be more of a pattern of growth,” she said.
Rolf Boone: 360-754-5403
rboone@theolympian.com
www.theolympian.com/bizblog
