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Zduriencik was hired 1,206 days ago – a long time to spend talking to a volleyball while stranded on an island perhaps, but not so long for an executive entrusted to change the direction of a foundering baseball team. Rebuilding projects demanding a comprehensive overhaul of the farm system generally take seven to 10 seasons to achieve fruition. Zduriencik is heading into Year Four.
Still, if it’s too early to render a pass-or-fail grade on Zduriencik’s work, it’s reasonable to look for – indeed, expect – indications of tangible progress as his regime approaches its mid-semester phase.
A breakout year for first baseman Justin Smoak, as an example, would be an indication of tangible progress. Smoak was acquired as part of a prospect package for Cliff Lee in a bold 2010 trade made five months after Lee was picked up (“stolen” might be a better term) from the Phillies.
Zduriencik’s ability to trade for a top-of-the-rotation talent like Lee, at the cost of three of the organization’s more expendable minor leaguers, drew raves. The deal that sent Lee to Texas was seen by some as a coup – the Mariners were out of the race, and Lee was going to be a free agent at the end of the season – but the key component of the trade was Smoak, a switch-hitting first baseman whose power potential had made him a top Rangers prospect.
Baseball America touted his defense. Smoak, the magazine noted, was blessed with “Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands.”
Smoak came to Seattle and found himself overwhelmed by major-league pitching. He was hitting .239, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 34-8, when he got sent to Triple-A Tacoma.
Zduriencik had a logical explanation for Smoak’s struggles in 2010: He had been rushed through the minors. He needed time to adjust, catch his breath and find himself.
In 2011, what Smoak found was mostly grief. He hurt his thumb, and broke his nose, and neither injury compared with the heartache he suffered after the death of his father. He hit .234, and while 15 homers revealed a glimpse of his reputed power, Mariners fans had been intrigued by comparisons of Smoak to such elite switch-hitters as Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira.
Smoak does not belong in that conversation, of course, and at the age of 25, there’s reason to doubt he’ll ever belong in that conversation.
And yet …
When manager Eric Wedge invited nine position players to Seattle for a sort of minicamp weekend last month, Smoak showed up in the shape of a pro athlete who realizes he has reached a crossroads. From all accounts, his body fat is down, and his eyes are bright.
Smoak hit 15 home runs during the worst season of his life. If he hits 30 home runs in 2012, the 2010 trade Zduriencik arranged with the Rangers will be seen as a home run, too.
Smoak figures to bat fourth or fifth, depending on where Wedge plugs in Jesus Montero, a catcher/designated-hitter acquired from the Yankees in a trade that cost starting pitcher Michael Pineda. An All-Star as a 22-year-old rookie, Pineda combined a cannon arm and a winsome disposition to become a fan favorite at Safeco Field.
But if Zduriencik’s hunches about Montero are correct, the Mariners soon will have a player able to connect with fans on a daily basis. (Full disclosure: I’ve never seen the guy swing a bat. But if anything can be culled from a few interviews with him – at the Mariners’ pre-spring training media luncheon, and at FanFest – Montero has all the intangibles associated with a star. He exudes confidence in a casual, no-big-deal manner, with a smile that belongs on a billboard.)
Back to Zduriencik: He inherited a farm system whose last household-name product was Alex Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 1993 draft. Zduriencik cleaned house, implementing a scouting system that combines old-school instincts with new-wave statistical analysis.
On the prospect watch, the Mariners now rank among the top third of MLB organizations. They have made up a lot of ground in three years, and they’ve made it up because the general manager possesses the acumen of a peerless scout.
Zduriencik hasn’t been flawless. He embraced the hopeless head case that was Milton Bradley, clinging to a nave trust in Seattle’s low-pressure baseball climate. At least that trade with the Cubs was a contract dump for clueless pitcher Carlos Silva. More unjustifiable was signing Chone Figgins to a free-agent deal worth $36 million.
But the Figgins fiasco – borrowing from my favorite Shawn Kemp quote – is water under the table. It’s baseball. You swing, and sometimes you miss.
Zduriencik missed on Figgins. Time to move on.
The Mariners will be fortunate to flirt with a .500 record in 2012, but keep your eyes on the prizes. Keep your eyes on Justin Smoak, and keep them on Jesus Montero.
Jack Zduriencik’s legacy hangs in the balance.
john.mcgrath@thenewstribune.com
THE GOOD Z …
The three-team trade with the Mets and Indians on Dec. 10, 2008. In exchange for a pair of relievers (J.J. Putz, Sean Green) and reserve outfielder Jeremy Reed, the Mariners picked up two everyday players (Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Carp) a left-handed starting pitcher (Jason Vargas) and four trade chips (Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Ezequeil Carrera, Maikel Cleto).
Zduriencik’s first blockbuster deal, announced 10 weeks after he was hired, remains his best.
Trading for left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee on Dec. 16, 2009.
In exchange for three minor leaguers (J.C. Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies) Zduriencik acquired an All-Star who was flipped to the Rangers at the midsummer trading deadline in 2010.
Picking up shortstop Brendan Ryan from the Cardinals for pitcher Maikel Cleto on Dec. 12, 2010.
Ryan, a fiery sort who never fit in at St. Louis, is a terrific defensive player whose veteran presence last season helped accelerate Dustin Ackley’s transition to second base.
THE BAD Z …
Signing free-agent infielder Chone Figgins to a four-year contract on Dec. 15, 2009.
A Murphy’s Law acquisition – whatever could go wrong, went very wrong. Because they still owe him $17 million, the Mariners will give Figgins another chance to win the third base job in spring training.
Trading for outfielder Milton Bradley on Dec. 8, 2009.
Zduriencik saw the deal that sent ineffective starter Carlos Silva to the Cubs for the embattled Bradley as a bad-contract-for-bad-contract swap, but Bradley offered nothing on the field and proved to be a divisive personality in the clubhouse.
Trading starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn to the Tigers for fellow left-handers Luke French and Mauricio Robles on July 31, 2009.
Although Washburn was contemplating retirement, he was pitching fairly well and still had some value. The Mariners should’ve gotten an offensive prospect for him.
THE WAIT AND Z …
Lee and right-handed reliever Mark Lowe to the Rangers for minor league prospects Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson on July 9, 2010.
This deal still could turn out to be a winner if the switch-hitting Smoak figures things out after two inconsistent, injury-plagued seasons.
Starting pitcher Doug Fister and long-reliever David Pauley to the Tigers for Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, Chance Ruffin and Francisco Martinez on July 30, 2011.
Fister, who became Detroit’s No. 2 starter last summer, makes this trade look like a steal for the Tigers. But if Martinez develops into a third baseman with power, the deal will turn out OK.
Starting pitcher Michael Pineda and minor-league pitching prospect Jose Campos to the Yankees for catcher/DH Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi on Jan. 13.
The most talked-about trade of the offseason looms as the ultimate gamble for both teams.
John McGrath, staff writer
