State workers fear layoffs as Gregoire looks at trims

Government programs likely to be forced to make cuts, too

By Adam Wilson | The Olympian • Published November 10, 2008

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Cuts to state government, including layoffs, are almost certain as Washington's weakening economy promises to deepen the hole in the budget.

Officially, nothing has been decided. But Gov. Chris Gregoire won re-election with a pledge not to raise taxes, and the budget numbers have been going from bad to worse.

At the top level, the math is clear. To keep doing what it's doing, the state would need $34.5 billion over the next two years. The latest revenue estimate predicted it would have $3.2 billion less than that to spend, just more than a 9 percent gap.

That shortfall has been enough to provoke widespread fears among state employees of layoffs, and not without reason.

"I don't think anything's imminent … because we took the steps we did to make sure we had enough cushion for this biennium," said Glenn Kuper, spokesman for Gregoire's budget office. "Certainly as we build the budget for next biennium, that's a very realistic possibility."

The steps taken so far include a freeze on hiring, cuts to travel and contract budgets, and a 1 percent spending reduction across the board. With the predicted savings, plus the entire rainy-day reserve account, Gregoire figured she had bridged half of the budget gap.

Most recent trims

But on Friday, the state's economic forecast trimmed another $93 million from expectations. Former Gov. Gary Locke has said the budget gap could be as high as $4.5 billion.

A tax revenue forecast is due Nov. 19, which will shed more light on the depths of likely cuts. Gregoire is required to release a debt-free budget proposal before Christmas.

Two months ago, state employee unions negotiated contracts with Gregoire that call for raises in the next budget. The unions also worked to get Gregoire re-elected last week.

"We have confidence that she is the best person to manage this deficit," said Tim Welch, spokesman for the Washington Federation of State Employees. He rejected the notion that layoffs are a given, saying the revenue forecast during the legislative session is most important.