Rossi, Gregoire head for rematch

Gov. Chris Gregoire built a narrow lead over GOP challenger Dino Rossi in Tuesday's first top-two primary, setting the stage for their long-awaited November rematch.

With less than 1 million votes counted, Gregoire led Rossi by a little more than 31,000 votes in a crowded field of 10 candidates -- a far cry wider than their historic 133-vote difference in the 2004 general election.

But the next-closest challenger had less than 2 percent of the vote in an election where only Gregoire and Rossi -- whose campaigns are shattering state fundraising records -- had any chance.

Both candidates claimed a victory -- although some political observers were skeptical about what could be read into a primary result in a big presidential-election year.

Gregoire, a one-term Democrat who increased state spending on education and pushed an activist environmental and transportation-tax agenda, said the result shows that voters think she and Democrats are delivering on job creation, improving health care and public safety, and boosting education.

"Candidly, from now until November, we've got the momentum. Barack Obama is going to win Washington, and I'm going to work with him," Gregoire said from her Seattle campaign party.

She added, "I take nothing for granted."

But Rossi, the former Senate budget writer, was conceding nothing while insisting that he's going to tap into Obama voters, too, with his message of change.

He predicted that voters by November will have concerns about a predicted state budget shortfall of $2.7 billion next year, which he says will lead to higher taxes under Gregoire and the Democrats if they win.

"We're moving on to the general election. But we did considerably better than in 2004, when I got 34 percent of the (primary) vote," Rossi said by telephone from his Redmond campaign party.

"Our polling shows that for the general election … we're in a statistical dead heat."

Downplayed primary

Both candidates' parties had downplayed the importance of showing well in the primary, but the campaigns and supporters went all out in a $13 million spending frenzy that included hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of television ads in recent weeks.

"The showing in the primary means absolutely nothing," University of Washington political science professor John Gastil said in an e-mail before the votes were counted Tuesday.

"I think both campaigns have shown a lack of restraint in beginning such serious ad buys at this early stage. Political insiders make hay of primary results in cases like this, where the result is a foregone conclusion, but such results are not, in fact, predictive of election outcomes."

The Building Industry Association of Washington and allies spent close to $2 million supporting Rossi and pounding Gregoire's record.

Attack ads hit at her approval of gambling compacts for tribal casinos and later the Democratic Party's receipt of tribal campaign donations; BIAW also highlighted her veto of money for foster children, even though she sought and signed into law a much larger increase for foster care than she vetoed.

Rossi accused her of changing her position on the gasoline tax and other tax increases four years ago, suggesting that she can't be trusted not to raise taxes next year.

Ads

Gregoire backers paid for misleading, independent ads that accused Rossi of "turning his back" on domestic violence victims who quit jobs to avoid abuse. In fact, he voted for alternative funding.

Other ads more accurately questioned Rossi's actions as a state senator to enact a "bed tax" on nursing homes, to cut off funding increases for education and to, in effect, reduce health care coverage for children.

Many polls have showed Gregoire leading by a few percentage points, often within the poll's margin of error, but the latest Elway Poll put her ahead recently by 52 percent to 36 percent among all likely voters. Elway Polls are monthly and nonpartisan.

Rossi's campaign manager Afton Swift argued in a memo last week that the primary typically favors Democratic candidates for governor by several percentage points -- which meant a close finish by Rossi could actually foreshadow a victory in November.

State Republican chairman Luke Esser repeated that analysis, saying it had been three decades since a GOP candidate for governor did this well.

And Secretary of State Sam Reed, also a Republican, said: "I just think it once again shows it's going to be a very, very close race. … I think we'll have far more independents voting."

Expectations

But Kelly Steele of the state Democratic Party said last week that it was more likely Rossi would win the primary, because data from the past four elections showed higher recent turnout in counties that voted for Rossi in 2004 than in counties won by Gregoire.

Steele had added that the situation turns in Gregoire's favor when more voters turn out in November.

"Not only are we holding on to our base, but we're cutting into Rossi's. We're winning in Asotin and Spokane counties," Gregoire campaign spokesman Aaron Toso said. "We're winning in all four corners of the state right now and we're feeling pretty good about where we are at."

Rossi has reported more individual donors to his campaign than Gregoire during every step of the campaign, however, and he stopped by Olympia early Tuesday evening for a fundraiser hosted by upscale donors west of Olympia.

Rossi said his campaign message has attracted voters and donors of all sizes across the state, and he already has 13,000 more donors than he had in his entire 2004 run.

Brad Shannon is The Olympian's political editor. He can be reached at 360-753-1688 or bshannon@theolympian.com.