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As stocks and oil prices fall, Russians worry about the ruble

Tom Lasseter | McClatchy Newspapers • Published December 03, 2008

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MOSCOW — From behind the thick glass window at a money exchange in downtown Moscow, Anna Golovachova is well positioned to watch the fall of the ruble, and to contemplate the consequences if it keeps falling.

"The ruble had been stable for years, and now this," Golovachova said, as a few customers lined up to sell stacks of the Russian currency.

The rates posted on the wall tell the story: The shop buys and sells dollars for just under 28 rubles, about an 18 percent drop since August, when it was about 23.

"I'm very worried there will be another default," said the teller, referring to Russia's 1998 monetary collapse, which accompanied a national default on debts.

After two months of taking a battering on its stock markets and banks — the main stock indices are down more than 70 percent since May — concern now is growing in Russia about the national currency.

Analysts aren't expecting a financial collapse like that of a decade ago, but many say that a further ruble devaluation is inevitable, and they worry that the public will overreact.

"Since August, confidence in the ruble has declined dramatically," said Natalia Orlova, a senior analyst at Alfa Bank, one of Russia's 10 largest banks. "Unfortunately, we know from the history of other crises that a panic may trigger devaluation, and it becomes self-fulfilling."

One analyst summed up the government's fears: "They're concerned about a run on the bank."

The value of the ruble is crucial for the government. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin built much of his reputation on returning financial stability to the nation during his eight years as president beginning in 2000, though his critics point to rising oil prices, not his policies, as the key to Russia's turnaround. Now oil has fallen to $55 a barrel this week from a high of $147 this summer.

An added complication is that while it's slipped against the dollar, the ruble recently has risen against the euro — the currency of its main trading partners — which could hurt Russia's export outlook.