CDC's swine flu toll: 4,000 dead, 22 million ill

By LAURAN NEERGAARD | AP Medical Writer • Published November 12, 2009

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WASHINGTON – Estimates of deaths caused by the swine flu have grown to nearly 4,000 since April, roughly quadrupling previous estimates. But that doesn't mean swine flu suddenly has worsened.

Instead, the federal numbers made public Thursday reflect a long-awaited better attempt to quantify the new flu's true toll. Most cases still don't require a doctor's care.

Swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed about 540 children.

And it's still early in the season.

"I am expecting all of these numbers, unfortunately, to continue to rise," said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We have a long flu season ahead of us."

Tight supplies of vaccine to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows nearly 1 in 6 parents has gotten at least some of their children vaccinated against swine flu since inoculations began last month. An additional 14 percent of parents sought vaccine but couldn't find any.

Only about 30 percent of children routinely get flu vaccinations during a normal winter. That even this many have gotten vaccinated against the new flu, which scientists call the 2009 H1N1 strain, despite the shortage suggests CDC's target-the-young message has gotten through.

But three times as many adults have tried and failed to find vaccine for themselves as have succeeded.

And interest among the young adults who also are at high risk is waning fast, found the AP-GfK poll of 1,006 adults nationwide.

Schuchat urged patience in seeking vaccine.

"It's a marathon and not a sprint," she said. "More vaccine is being ordered and delivered and used every day."

Until now, the CDC has conservatively estimated more than 1,000 deaths and "many millions" of new H1N1 infections. The agency was devoting more time to battling the pandemic than to counting it. Earlier figures were based on laboratory-confirmed cases even as doctors largely quit using flu tests months ago - and experts knew that deaths from things like the bacterial pneumonia that often follows flu were being missed.

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