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UPDATED: The UW Poll: R-71 up, I-1033 trails

• Published October 27, 2009

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The Washington Poll released results today (Tuesday) that show the left-of-center viewpoint is winning on both statewide ballot measures Nov. 3. Referendum 71's expansion of gay couples' rights is passing and Initiative 1033's cap on government revenue growth is failing.

Referendum 71 expands the number of rights for registered domestic partners to include all the state rights of married couples but without actually conferring marriage. Initiative 1033 seeks to cap revenue growth for state, city and county governments, using excess revenues to lower property taxes.

The poll, done by a social-research school at the University of Washington that has a good track record of being right about election results, showed R-71 is winning by a 56 percent to 39 percent margin among registered voters. The edge was 57-38 among likely voters (likely voters were those who have sent in ballots already or said they voted in November 2007).

Pollsters interviewed 724 registered voters during Oct. 14-26 and had an error margin of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The interviews were done in live, person-to-person calls, and roughly a quarter of those polled had already turned in ballots.

In contrast to other pollsters' results that showed it winning by as much as a 2-to-1 margin, I-1033 is losing in the UW Poll. Registered voters rejected it by a 46 percent to 41 percent margin, with 13 percent undecided.

Likely voters said they intend to vote against it by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin.

Sponsor Tim Eyman wants to limit growth in governments' general-fund revenues to a factor of inflation and population growth, using any excess to reduce property taxes.

The results could reflect that opponents are besieging the airwaves with television ads warning of I-1033's impacts on schools and health care.

I thought it was interesting that Republicans, Independents and men said they favor the measure, but Democrats and women as demographic groups oppose it. Those without college education favored I-1033 by one percentage point, while those with college degrees opposed it 50 percent to 41 percent.