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UPDATE: Eyman's I-1033 looks dead; similar TABOR law failing in Maine

• Published November 03, 2009

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UPDATED: The outcome might not be is becoming clear right away tonight on Tim Eyman's Initiative 1033, the revenue-capping measure for state, county and city governments. Early Washington returns show it was losing 54 percent to 46 percent statewide, but that was with only 123,856 votes counted out of a likely 1.75 million and that margin grew wider as roughly half of the 1.75 million ballots expected statewide were counted.

Eyman put out a statement in which he said the measure sent a clear message to state and local governments, "demanding greater fiscal discipline." Click here for text of his statement to supporters at a post-election party that just started at the Bellevue Hyatt.

I-1033 is the latest version of a so-called TABOR initiative, or taxpayer bill of rights, which first passed in 1992 in Colorado. That state since voted in 2005 to suspend the measure in light of the revenue starvation it was causing governments as the state slipped in national rankings for school and health funding.

A TABOR measure on the Maine ballot also was failing tonight in early returns. That might not surprise the No on 1033 campaign, whose spokesman Scott Whiteaker said today that TABOR measures have failed on the ballot or legislatures of 30 states since Colorado's landmark vote.

I talked earlier in the day with Kristina Wilfore, a former Democratic strategist in Washington state who is now executive director for the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center in Washington, D.C., She describes it as a "clearing house for progressive ballot measures,"’ but it also keeps an eye on measure like Eyman's and the gay-rights measures on Washington and Maine ballots today.

Wilfore joked that based upon her "focus group of one," a sister who lives in Spokane, "the tides may be shifting in Washington." The sister backed Eyman's early measure, I-695 repealing motor vehicle excise taxes in 1999, but now thinks I-1033 goes too far, Wilfore said.

She also contended that proprietary research shows the name Eyman is a drag on measures a decade after Eyman crashed like a meteor on the political map with I-695.

"We have seen more negativity around his brand and involvement in this than we've seen in other campaigns," Wilfore said.

In the end, she conceded, it will be "remarkable" if I-1033 is defeated. Voter acceptance or rejection of I-1033 comes down to a simple question, she said: "Ultimately are they more angry about taxes and spending or are they more fearful this will readjust people's (legislative) priorities in critical services?"

As people learn more about what TABOR-style measures might do, Wilfore said, "they are not so happy about it" and they see a risk in its tax-control message.

No on 1033 television ads have tried to link the measure with more of the kinds of budget cuts Washington already is seeing in K-12 education programs and in health care. But even 1033 spokesman Whiteaker admits the measure won't affect state or local budgets until calendar year 2011.