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UPDATE: Caseload forecast adds $250 million cost to two-year budget

• Published July 01, 2009

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A draft of the state's newest caseload forecast is out, and it carries with it a price tag of possibly $200 million to $300 million. (Update: the actual figure is $250.4 million.)

Today marks the first day of a new two-year budget cycle, and Gov. Chris Gregoire's budget office people was still tabulating the effects. Members of the Caseload Forecast Council are meeting this morning to go over the numbers.

A Forecast Council summary sheet shows increases in enrollments for K-12 education, health care enrollment costs for children, general assistance, aid to needy families, and for the community care of the disabled and elderly. Some K-12 increases are in bilingual education, and those in basic education were driven by one school district's apparent miscalculation of enrollment projections at its schools, which have a lot of internet-based instruction.

I was unable to remain at the meeting and will check back later. In the meantime, Glenn Kuper of the Office of Financial Management said they are still crunching numbers but believe the increased costs for the two-year budget cycle can be managed by orders for additional savings that Gregoire issued last month.

UPDATE: OFM's Kuper shared a spreadsheet that shows the real increase in costs is $250.4 million. The biggest piece is $113.4 million in aid to categorically needy families and $69.6 million more for children in the categorically needy, Children’s Health Insurance and other medical programs. Almost $14 million more is in the aged, blind and disabled category.

The forecast for mental-health care needs through Medicaid pass-throughs to Regional Support Networks calls for $29.3 million more. Another $12 million increase is in the General Assistance Unemployed and related GA-X programs, which help a population that is often disabled, homeless or otherwise in dire need. Lawmakers put limits on the GAU program but caseloads are expected to be 2,229 higher than forecasted in March.

Similarly, nursing home caseloads are now estimated at 326 persons higher, costing $6 million, and home- and community-services for the long-term care population is another $3 million more than forecast before.

UPDATE 2: Here is a link to the summary of costs estimated by Gregoire's budget office.