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Recession over, top state economic forecaster says

• Published September 04, 2009

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But that's not to say the news is altogether good.

Arun Raha, executive director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council issued his 34-page quarterly report today.

"It appears the recession is over. My guess is it ended last month. But the recovery is still fragile and fraught with risk. The economy has just been through the wringer and it means it will take time to heal,"’ he said in a meeting with lawmakers, state budget director Victor Moore and other members of the forecast council.

Raha said risks include the threat of regional bank failures, which are tied to the still-struggling commercial real estate sector. His written report said he expects jobless rates to grow, hitting a peak of 9.8 percent, which he wrote was "significantly lower" than a 10.5 percent peak predicted in June.

Moore, the budget director for Gov. Chris Gregoire, said he was "a little encouraged" by the new numbers that still spell out a troubling trend that won't provide significant job growth until 2010. Moore said housing prices have begun to rise but people need to see that companies are hiring again.

Raha declined to say when he expects state revenues to show an increase on a year-over-year basis, but he’ll have more to say on that topic Sept. 17 when he delivers his formal, quarterly revenue forecast for the next two years.

He did say that "month over month, seasonably adjusted we are starting to see things leveling off."

Raha credited the international stimulus efforts with turning around the global economies. He said there already are anecdotal and early reports of an increase in trade through Washington ports, which feed other markets inside and outside the country.

We'll be reworking and expanding this piece for tomorrow's print editions.