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Poll shows R-71 close, I-1033 winning

• Published October 09, 2009

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A Survey USA poll released earlier this week shows Referendum 71 is winning by less than the margin of error, and Tim Eyman's tax-reducing I-1033 is winning by a wider margin.

KING television commissioned the poll, and the results are here.

Survey USA polled 1,050 Washington adults during Oct. 3-5, and 907 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 53 percent were considered likely to vote in the Nov. 3 election; the error margin was 4.3 percent.

R-71, which confers the third round of rights to same-sex couples who are on the state domestic-partnership registry, is leading by just 45 percent to 42 percent, and 13 percent said they are not certain. R-71, which is fought by religious conservatives, also would extend such rights as inheriting public pensions to opposite-sex couples with at least one partner age 62 or older.

Eyman's I-1033 was winning by a 45 percent to 32 percent margin with 22 percent uncertain. I-1033 would limit the general fund revenues that the state, cities or counties can spend, tying growth in revenues to factors of inflation and population growth. It also takes any excess revenues over the limit and uses them for property-tax reduction the following year, in effect cutting nearly $6 billion from state coffers by 2015.

The University of Washington Poll, which has been pretty accurate in recent Northwest election cycles, is not due out until Oct. 27. But a longer-term study of polling by the UW Poll released in September showed support for full recognition of same-sex relationships has grown from a majority of 58 percent in 2006 to 66 percent in 2008, and opposition to any recognition of the relationships has fallen to 21 percent.