Voters swarm top-two primary

Officials expect near-record count

By Brad Shannon | The Olympian • Published August 10, 2008

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Elections officials predict relatively high voter turnout for the Aug. 19 vote-by-mail primary election, which has been under way for about a week in Washington.

Secretary of State Sam Reed said turnout could hit 46 percent, the highest for a primary since turnout was 49 percent in 1972.

In Thurston County, a county commissioner race with five candidates could lift local turnout even higher.

"We're guessing, and really it's an educated guess, the high 40s, maybe 48 percent. I think that's low, but I'm optimistic," county chief deputy auditor Ken Raske said.

As of Friday afternoon, 11,302 ballots had been returned. That's about 8 percent of the 139,618 county voters, Raske said. Statewide, there are 3.4 million registered voters.

Reed's predicted turnout is slightly more than the 45.8 percent for the primary in September 1992 and less than the 49.4 percent of September 1972. The turnout four years ago was 45.1 percent, compared with 40.8 percent in 2000.

Reed based his higher prediction on the empowering effect he said the new top-two primary will have for voters, who can pick any candidate from any party; and the all-mail voting in 37 of 39 counties.

The top-two was voted into law in 2004 by a citizen initiative that the Washington State Grange sponsored. Voters were upset at the time by court rulings that struck down the state's 70-year-old tradition of splitting tickets in a "blanket" primary, and they rebelled by passing the measure by a roughly 60 percent majority.

Lower federal courts struck down the top-two, finding that it also was an infringement on party rights. But the U.S. Supreme Court restored the top-two system this year, and Reed hurried to put it into use. Lawyers for the state's Democratic and Republican parties have warned that it could be invalidated.

Under the top-two system, two candidates from the same party can advance, and the Thurston commission race is one in which that could happen.

Democrats Sandra Romero and Jon Halvorson are well-known and have built campaign organizations, and they are running against little-known Democrat Lucius Daye, Republican Robin Edmondson and independent Bill Pilkey.

Reed, a Republican facing three opponents, said he doesn't expect any of the eight partisan statewide races on the primary to yield two candidates of the same party on the November general-election ballot. The most likely scenario for that to happen is in the state treasurer's race, but Reed thinks Republican Allan J. Martin is strong enough to out-poll at least one of the two better-known Democrats, Jim McIntire and ChangMook Sohn.

In the governor's race, Republican challenger Dino Rossi and Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire are the only candidates who have assembled significant campaign organizations in a field of 10 hopefuls, and both expect to move on easily to the Nov. 4 ballot. Gregoire barely beat out Rossi four years ago.

Brad Shannon is political editor for The Olympian. He can be reached at 360-753-1688 or bshannon@theolympian.com.