UW to test second-week gains theory against BYU

By Bob Condotta | Seattle Times • Published September 05, 2008

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A truth of college football, readily agreed upon by seemingly every coach, is that a team makes its greatest improvement from game one to game two.

The theory is that having finally played a game, a team has a better handle on its strengths and weaknesses and knows what to work on.

It’s a cliche providing great comfort right now to the Washington Huskies, who are hoping that the expected improvement after the first game -- a 44-10 loss at Oregon -- will help the team rebound for Saturday’s contest against No. 15 BYU. Several UW coaches have mentioned it this week.

Just one nagging thought -- is it really true?

Does anything support the notion that a team makes its greatest improvement from game one to game two? And what about the fact that the opponent is also theoretically making a great improvement from week one to week two, assuming it has already played a game, as is the case this week with BYU, 41-17 winners over Northern Iowa last Saturday? Wouldn’t that mean the two teams are back where they started?

So to test the theory a bit, we decided to look at the past 11 years of Huskies football, game one to game two (with a nod to the WSU Football Blog, which ran its own Cougars-related version this week):

1997

Game one: Won at BYU, 42-20.

Game two: Beat San Diego State at home, 36-3.

Conclusion: Push, meaning inconclusive either way. The Huskies were rated No. 4 to open the season and lived up to it by routing the Cougars in Provo, gaining 577 yards. There was no way to look better the next week.

1998

Game one: Won at Arizona State, 42-38.

Game two: Beat BYU at home, 20-10.

Conclusion: Push. The opener saw UW win in dramatic fashion on a last-minute pass from Brock Huard to Reggie Davis. After a bye week, UW beat the Cougars in a fairly sloppy game due largely to TDs on a kickoff return and fumble return. But offensive struggles foreshadowed the 6-6 season to come.

1999

Game one: Lost at BYU, 35-28.

Game two: Lost to Air Force at home, 31-21.