When evacuation fails, should wildfire communities have a backup refuge?

As wildfire researchers warn that some communities do not have enough roads to evacuate safely, they are also raising a fraught question: Should fire-risk neighborhoods have designated refuge areas for people who cannot get out?

A new study that found wildfire deaths in California and across the U.S. between 2008 and 2024 were concentrated in communities with few exit routes also contains a controversial recommendation to set up refuge areas in fire-risk communities to serve as "preplanned shelter-in-place options" that could "enhance survival when evacuation fails."

The researchers from UC Santa Barbara pointed to the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise east of Chico. While some fleeing residents died in vehicles stuck in traffic, hundreds of people rode out the blaze in parking lots and other areas they found on their own or were directed to by first responders.

But the report's suggested investment in shelter-in-place refuges is "one of the great controversial issues" in wildfire response, UC Berkeley fire scientist Michael Gollner said.

A last-ditch survival option could save people trapped by flames, Gollner said, but it could also deter residents from evacuating early, putting them and firefighters at greater risk.

Seth Schalet, CEO of the Santa Clara County FireSafe Council, would like to see designated temporary refuges included in wildfire response plans by counties and local governments so they can "communicate to people that in a last-resort situation, here's where you need to go."

Public outreach and education would be needed to ensure residents do not delay evacuation because they believe they can rely on a refuge, Schalet said.

Local and regional fire chiefs are aware of locations that could serve as refuges for people unable to evacuate, but publicly designating such sites as shelter-in-place options is problematic, said Chelsea Burkett, spokesperson for Cal Fire's Santa Clara County Unit.

"If we're giving an evacuation order or a warning that's us saying, ‘This is the time to start moving,'" Burkett said. "We would rather people adhere to those warnings and those orders that are given rather than having to use those temporary refuge areas."

Gollner said refuges could save lives in some situations, but would need to be identified in advance by local emergency managers charged with wildfire response, who would decide when to use them. Such sites would need to be staffed by first responders, which could divert firefighters and equipment from the battle against a blaze, Gollner added.

"It can quickly turn into a tragedy if not well thought out," Gollner said.

Michael Wara, senior research scholar at Stanford University's Woods Institute for the Environment, said the many older adults living in Bay Area communities at risk of burning could have trouble escaping a wildfire in time.

"My favorite neighbors are also most likely to die in a fire," said Wara, who lives in Mill Valley. "It would make sense to have a temporary refuge."

Any outdoor shelter site must be fire resistant and offer protection from heat as well as flame, Wara said.

"The heat from these fires can be enough to kill people," Wara said. "People's lungs get burned and then they suffocate."

In fast-moving wildfires, the most dangerous conditions can pass through a community relatively quickly, Wara said. He said public agencies could consider using money to fire-harden a small number of homes or buildings that could serve as last-resort community refuges.

Still, Wara said, "I totally hear Cal Fire's perspective. They want people to get out of there."

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This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 2:06 AM.