Experts send strong message about decreasing mortgage rates

In my decade of reporting on mortgage rates, I've witnessed Americans' interest in buying a home wilt every time rates inch up.

Considering Freddie Mac's reported mortgage rates increased for five straight weeks in March and April, potential homebuyers have probably felt discouraged, to say the least.

But Freddie Mac mortgage rates actually decreased last week. And they're down again this week.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined seven basis points this week. It now sits at 6.3%.

Recently, the war with Iran has been a huge factor in rising mortgage rates. The war isn't over, so why have rates decreased for two consecutive weeks? And can we expect rates to continue dropping? It's crucial for people to have these answers during home-buying season.

Why are mortgage rates decreasing?

Yes, the United States is still at war with Iran. However, there are signs of tensions easing up, which is giving investors a little hope. A better sentiment is helping mortgage rates tick down.

"Markets are beginning to look past some of the immediate uncertainty and are increasingly optimistic that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could become a more lasting end to the fighting, even though talks have not yet concluded," Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist at loanDepot, told TheStreet.

Related: Fannie Mae predicts shift in mortgage rates, home prices

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closely follows the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield peaked near the end of March, and though it has fluctuated over the last couple of weeks, it has remained lower than that peak. When the 10-year Treasury yield lowers, home loan rates typically follow suit.

The 10-year yield will likely trend downward if the U.S. reaches a truce with Iran - or even if investors see potential that it will.

"The conventional wisdom is that lower rates are in store if negotiations with Iran yield some sort of verifiable peace," Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby's International Realty, told TheStreet.

Will mortgage rates continue to go down?

Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or refinance, you probably want to know - will mortgage rates continue on this downward trend? Or is this a brief fluke?

It's hard to say what mortgage rates will do next. But we have information about which factors move them up or down.

"While some of the immediate concerns have eased, mortgage rates are still being influenced by developments in the Middle East, while signs of labor market weakness are starting to come back into focus," DerGurahian said.

He explained that we won't know what mortgage rates will do until we have more clarity on both the war with Iran and employment rates. Rates might inch up or down, but Americans shouldn't expect drastic changes in either direction.

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Along with easing tensions in Iran, Burr said that for mortgage rates to decrease significantly, inflation would need to go down. The Federal Reserve would also have to implement a "more benign policy approach" to changing the federal funds rate.

"However, if these factors do not take place, there is a good chance that rates may need to be increased in order to keep inflation down," Burr said. "In that case, the chances of a recession increase, and that would cause rates to come down eventually, as the economy sputters."

Various factors determine mortgage rates. More small decreases could be in the cards, but don't expect rates to plunge in the next few weeks or even months.

How to approach mortgage rates during home-buying season

Depending on where you live, you're either already in the middle of home-buying season, or it's just getting into full swing. So, mortgage rates are ticking down, but not plummeting. What does this mean for people wanting to buy this spring or summer?

• Mortgage rates may still be well over 6%, but they're down 0.53% since this week last year, according to Freddie Mac. It may be comforting to know that when it comes to rates, you're in a better position now than you would have been in April 2025.
• Determined to lock in a lower mortgage rate? DerGurahian recommended considering loan terms other than the traditional 30-year FRM, such as adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). "In many cases, ARMs can offer a lower initial rate, helping reduce monthly payments in the early years of homeownership," he said.
• Don't try to time the real estate market by holding out for lower rates. Mortgage rates are unpredictable. "Don't worry about all of the troubles in the world," Burr said. "There is no 'perfect' time to buy a property. There will always be issues that cause consternation."
• Shop around with three or four mortgage lenders. This helps you compare mortgage rates and lender fees to see what your final annual percentage rate (APR) would be. Look for the company offering the lowest APR, not just the lowest rate.

Related: Dave Ramsey sends strong message on housing market

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This story was originally published April 18, 2026 at 7:33 AM.