Goldman Sachs reassesses Apple stock ahead of earnings
Apple is heading into its April 30 earnings report, with investors focused on iPhone demand, outlooks, and what's next for its AI strategy under its upcoming new CEO.
The iPhone maker's stock has lagged this year, down about 0.64% year to date compared with a 4.67% gain for the S&P 500 index, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Concerns about rising memory costs and the potential hit to smartphone margins have weighed on sentiment, even as the company continues to post rosy growth in its business.
In its last earnings report, Apple announced excessively strong sales of the iPhone, particularly in China. Quarterly revenue from iPhone surged 23% year over year to $85.27 billion, driven by strong sales of the iPhone 17 models. iPhone sales account for nearly 60% of Apple's total revenue.
Next week's report will also be the first since Apple's recent leadership transition announcement. Investors will look for signs of stability and direction.
Beyond earnings, the company has a busy calendar, with its Worldwide Developers Conference in June expected to bring updates on AI features, followed by a major new iPhone release later in the year.
Goldman Sachs is rethinking its outlook for Apple stock. Here's what the firm sees:
Apple investors are "overly pessimistic," Goldman says
Goldman Sachs reiterated a $330 price target with a buy rating on the shares, arguing that recent concerns around margins and demand may be overstated, according to a recent research note sent to TheStreet.
The bank pointed to a sharp rise in memory prices as a key source of investor anxiety.
"With DRAM (Dynamic random-access memory) prices experiencing a massive surge since Fall 2025 driven by an AI-induced supply shortage, concerns around smartphone gross margin pressures and pricing-driven demand destruction and component shortages have driven underperformance," the firm wrote.
In the January earnings call, Apple's current CEO Tim Cook acknowledged that the rising chip prices will have a "bit more of an impact" on the company's Q2 gross margin. Still, Apple forecast a gross margin of 48% to 49% for the quarter to be reported.
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Goldman said Apple is better positioned to manage those pressures. "We believe concerns for Apple are overly pessimistic given its much stronger relative position," the analysts added.
The firm pointed to Apple's outperformance in high-end smartphones (highlighted in TSMC's latest earnings call and iPhone share gains in China), and reports that the company is "securing as much mobile DRAM on the market while keeping pricing competitive."
Goldman expects iPhone revenue to reach about $56.6 billion for the quarter, up 21% from a year earlier and ahead of consensus estimates.
The firm expects Apple to report revenue of $110.3 billion, up 16% from a year earlier and at the high end of the company's guidance, along with earnings per share of $2.00, above the $1.93 consensus estimate.
Apple's AI updates in focus
Beyond hardware, Apple's services business remains a key piece of the story.
Goldman expects services revenue to grow about 14% year over year, supported by subscriptions such as iCloud+ and AppleCare+, along with pricing increases and advertising expansion.
"Results should also be flattered by favorable forex (foreign exchange), as well as strong underlying Services revenue growth," the firm said.
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Even with slower App Store growth, Goldman sees other areas picking up the slack. "We believe product-related Services drivers such as iCloud+ and AppleCare+, along with prior price increases on AppleTV+ and solid advertising performance, should support another quarter of teens Services revenue growth," the analysts said.
Looking ahead, investors are focused on future catalysts for Apple stock.
Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June is expected to bring more details on its AI plans, including updates to Siri. The company has been slower than some peers to roll out generative AI features, and any progress could help shift sentiment.
Later in the year, Apple is expected to launch a new iPhone lineup, which Goldman described as the "most innovative" in years, with the introduction of a foldable model. That could drive a new upgrade cycle, especially as older devices struggle to support newer AI features.
However, risks remain, including potential weaker consumer demand, supply chain disruptions, and competition across both devices and services.
"Apple generated ~50% of its revenue from iPhones (F2025), which is highly dependent on purchases driven by upgrades," the analysts warned.
Apple stock closed at $271.06 on April 24.
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This story was originally published April 25, 2026 at 4:07 AM.