COVID-19 testing isn’t increasing even as state says it needs more to reopen economy

At a time when Gov. Jay Inslee says testing for COVID-19 is critical to safely reopening the rest of Washington’s economy, an analysis by a free-market think tank found that daily testing has declined steadily from late April to mid-May.

The average number of tests in Washington state dropped in that period by about 8 percent, from 5,109 to 4,685 based on a seven-day average of the state’s data, according to the analysis by the Washington Policy Center, a nonprofit group.

“Increased testing is vital if Washington state policymakers are to understand the extent and risk of the coronavirus,” said Todd Myers, the center’s environmental director.

When asked about the decline, Inslee senior adviser Reed Schuler disputed the numbers. “The last week for which we have complete and accurate testing volume data, the week of May 4, shows weekday testing highs that are roughly similar to the week prior...” he wrote in an email.

Myers stood by his numbers, saying he re-did an analysis published Tuesday and found the same decline in testing with the most recent confirmed data as of May 13.

“It’s a three-week trend,” he said.

The most recent update of the state’s COVID-19 website that tracks testing capacity and availability — which features a pointer on a dial ranging from low to high risk — was moved in the positive direction, Myers said.

The text under the dial says: ”Daily testing numbers remain very roughly steady, up from typical April volumes, but not continuing to increase.”

Myers said: “The dashboard is supposed to provide a data-driven, science-based indication of the status of efforts to fight COVID-19. The phrase ‘very roughly steady’ shows how imprecise and unscientific they actually are.

“Additionally, another way to say that testing is ‘not continuing to increase’ is ‘declining.’ This language is intentionally misleading and is designed to replace the clarity of the data with opaque, political rhetoric,” he added.

Myers said he doesn’t know the reason or whether there are multiple factors for the recent decline in testing. He said it’s not laboratory capacity, since the state has said labs can handle 22,000 tests per day.

At a press briefing Tuesday, Dr. Kathy Lofy, the state health officer and chief science officer, briefly reviewed the daily number of people tested based on when their specimen was collected.

“It looks like maybe the test volume may be a little bit lower last week, but we’re still waiting for this data to be fully complete,” she said.

A reporter asked Dr. Charissa Fotinos, a high-ranking state Health Care Authority official who is leading the statewide testing effort, about the apparent recent decline in testing.

Fotinos said the reasons probably are fewer cases of COVID-like illness and health care providers not knowing that the state has broadened its guidance on who should be tested.

“We need to do a better job of messaging to providers and to the public that if you do have mild symptoms, we would like to have you tested. As our supplies are becoming more steadily incoming and reliable, it will be easier to do,” she said.

On Friday, the state said about 11,000 negative lab results have not yet been entered into its data system. The statement did not say why. Myers said it would not change his analyses.

The questions surrounding testing come as Washington reacts to a recommendation from Vice President Mike Pence and Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coordinator for the virus response, that every nursing home resident and staff member in the nation be tested for COVID-19.

Pence and Birx issued the recommendation during a May 11 phone call with governors, saying the testing should be completed by May 25.

John Wiesman, state Secretary of Health, said the state expects to complete the testing by the end of the month.

“We think that is a good policy and we are ramping that up. Of course, all of this does depend on testing supplies,” he said.

Inslee repeatedly has said that a lack of sample collection supplies has been the biggest barrier to doing more testing. That includes swabs, which reach deep into nasal passages, along with the vials and fluid used to transport swabs to testing laboratories.

In late April, Admiral Brett Giroir, the Trump administration’s Assistant Secretary for Health, committed to Inslee that the federal government would provide Washington with 580,000 swabs each month in May and June, according to the governor’s office.

Giroir did not commit to a number of vials and fluids — called “transport media” — aside from enough to use all of the swabs, said Inslee spokesman Mike Faulk.

Schuler, the senior adviser to the governor, said at a Tuesday press briefing that Washington has received about 250,000 swabs and 210,000 units of transport media.

On Friday, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said Washington so far this month has received shipments totaling 297,000 swabs and 212,000 units of transport media.

“Additional shipments containing the rest of the supplies are scheduled later in the month to make up the rest of the federal commitment for May. Supplies will be sent in several shipments in June as well,” the agency said.

Myers, the environmental director for the Washington Policy Center, challenged Inslee’s contention that a lack of test collection supplies is behind the recent decline in the average number of daily tests.

In the same period of time he analyzed for Washington, Myers said Oregon’s testing has increased by about 28 percent and California’s rate has increased by nearly 66 percent.

“Since the virus has a long period where carriers are asymptomatic, increased testing is necessary to understand the extent of transmission. It is worth asking why testing is declining, especially when more testing is needed to help reopen the economy,” Myers said.

“The key thing for me is to acknowledge the trend; just to admit that it’s going in the wrong direction. Step one is to admit you have a problem. I don’t think we have done that yet,” Myers said.

Schuler said that for weekdays during the last week of complete testing data, it appears that Washington had a very similar or possibly higher rate than California based on per capita numbers, and significantly higher than Oregon. If other states were able to increase their testing rates more rapidly, it was in comparison to lower levels of testing, he contended.

“Certainly much more testing is needed. The state has been consistent in aggressively pushing for greater testing, including for needed federal assistance, which has just recently begun to flow,” Schuler said.

This story was originally published May 25, 2020 at 5:45 AM with the headline "COVID-19 testing isn’t increasing even as state says it needs more to reopen economy."