UW researchers ran 50 earthquake simulations. Here’s what they found.

Scientists have long warned that our region is due for a devastating earthquake. Now, researchers at the University of Washington have released findings on just how a magnitude-9.0 quake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone could play out.

They conducted 50 simulations using different combinations of three factors: the epicenter of the earthquake; how far inland the earthquake will rupture; and which sections of the fault will generate the strongest shaking.

Before this, there were few simulations of a 9.0 Cascadia earthquake.

“With just a few simulations you didn’t know if you were seeing a best-case, a worst-case or an average scenario. This project has really allowed us to be more confident in saying that we’re seeing the full range of possibilities,” Erin Wirth, the UW postdoctoral researcher who led the project, said in a news release.

UW’s results confirm the thinking that coastal areas will be hardest hit, and that sediment-filled areas including much of Olympia will shake more than rocky mountaintops.

But researchers found the intensity of shaking in Seattle could be less if the epicenter is fairly close, since seismic waves would radiate away from the city. If the epicenter is located far offshore, the waves would travel inland and all of that strong ground shaking would pile up on the way. UW’s results were presented Tuesday at the Geological Society of America’s annual meeting in Seattle.

This story was originally published October 24, 2017 at 10:02 AM with the headline "UW researchers ran 50 earthquake simulations. Here’s what they found.."