Dead users may overrun Facebook by 2070, study finds. Researchers want their data.

Facebook has billions of users around the world — but the number of profiles belonging to the dead could outstrip the number belonging to the living in 50 years, a new study finds.

Some see that situation as an opportunity, though: The huge amounts of data the deceased leave behind in their profiles could be a boon to future historians, archivists and others interested in our collective online footprint, according to Oxford University researchers who published the findings this month in the journal Big Data & Society.

“Never before in history has such a vast archive of human behavior and culture been assembled in one place. Controlling this archive will, in a sense, be to control our history,” David Watson, a study co-author and student at Oxford’s Internet Institute, said in a statement released by the school. “It is therefore important that we ensure that access to these historical data is not limited to a single for-profit firm.”

The researchers found that — even if the number of users on the social networking giant doesn’t grow — there will be at least 1.4 billion Facebook users who are dead before 2100, according to an Oxford news release. But if Facebook’s user base continues to balloon along the lines of its current 13 percent-a-year growth rate, there could be as many as 4.9 billion dead users on the platform by 2100, the study found.

Researchers wrote in the conclusion to their study that it amounted to the first “rigorous projection of the accumulation of Facebook profiles belonging to the deceased.” The study also found that “irrespective of how the network grows in the years to come, the vast majority of dead profiles will belong to users from non-western countries.”

“These statistics give rise to new and difficult questions around who has the right to all this data, how should it be managed in the best interests of the families and friends of the deceased and its use by future historians to understand the past,” Carl Öhman, an Oxford doctoral candidate and the lead study author, said in a statement.

It’s an issue the world has barely grappled with, according to the researchers.

“On a societal level, we have just begun asking these questions and we have a long way to go,” Öhman said. “The management of our digital remains will eventually affect everyone who uses social media, since all of us will one day pass away and leave our data behind.”

And it’s not just about individual Facebook profiles — it’s about what they could teach future historians who look at them altogether.

Öhman said that “the totality of the deceased user profiles also amounts to something larger than the sum of its parts. It is, or will at least become, part of our global digital heritage.”

Researchers said they based their predictions on a pair of scenarios — one assuming the social network stopped growing last year, and the second assuming it keeps growing at its 13 percent global rate yearly until it reaches market saturation worldwide.

In that first and more limited scenario, “Asia’s share of dead users increases rapidly to account for nearly 44% of the total by the end of the century,” according to the Oxford news release.

But assuming the second and more bold scenario holds true, “Africa will make up a growing share of dead users” and “Nigeria, in particular, becomes a major hub in this scenario, accounting for over 6% of the total. By contrast, Western users will account for only a minority of users, with only the US making the top 10,” the news release said.

The study relied on United Nations population data and predictions, researchers said.

The authors said Facebook should offer to share the vast quantities of data.

“Facebook should invite historians, archivists, archaeologists and ethicists to participate in the process of curating the vast volume of accumulated data that we leave behind as we pass away,” Watson said. “This is not just about finding solutions that will be sustainable for the next couple of years, but possibly for many decades ahead.”

This story was originally published April 29, 2019 at 4:36 PM with the headline "Dead users may overrun Facebook by 2070, study finds. Researchers want their data.."