Analysis: When it comes to ad reservations, parties typically don't play games

WASHINGTON - The 2026 election cycle has reached an important stage: the biennial fight about TV ad buys.

But while campaigns sometimes play games with internal polls or digital ads to manipulate the narrative about their races, there's usually less gamesmanship when it comes to ad reservations because there can be longer-term consequences that outweigh any short-term benefit.

On Thursday, House Majority PAC, the go-to Democratic outside group focused on that chamber, released its initial ad reservations for the fall sprint. HMP, as the group is commonly referred to in Washington, announced $272 million in TV and digital ad buys spread across 68 media markets. According to the news release, those reservations were divided between $80 million for digital and nearly $200 million for TV.

Republicans - whose House super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, announced $153 million in initial fall ad reservations last week - immediately cried foul, pointing out that HMP reported just $64 million in cash on hand at the end of March.

"This is fake. Democrats do not have this money," former White House deputy chief of staff James Blair posted on X. "What's not fake is massive GOP money, which will make every house DEM fight for their political life. Republicans can sleep well." Blair, who was the political director for Donald Trump's 2024 campaign, recently left his post in the administration to focus on the president's midterm election activity.

But this isn't the first time HMP has pledged to spend significantly more money than it has at the time of the announcement, before going on to raise that money - and more - later in the cycle.

Two years ago, HMP announced $186 million in initial ad reservations despite having just $63 million in the bank at the end of March, according to data pulled by Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections. The group ended up spending $220 million. It was a similar story in 2022. HMP's initial ad reservations totaled $102 million when it had $53 million on hand, and the group went on to spend $143 million that cycle.

There's always an aspirational aspect to early ad reservations because both parties want to claim valuable time in the fall and take advantage of favorable ad rates and time slots before fundraising is complete. The dynamic of reservations not matching up with current cash balances is not unique to HMP.

There's also the separate question of whether HMP, in this instance, is playing other games with the reservations.

Some campaigns choose to play fast and loose with internal polling. Operatives will release and portray an internal poll's informed ballot - under which respondents are given information about candidates before being asked whom they will support - as the initial ballot. Other times, campaigns will release a digital or social media ad, which is not seen by a broad cross section of the electorate, and portray it as a traditional ad on broadcast television.

Unfortunately, there are few real-world consequences for such bad behavior aside from a decline in respect from political reporters and analysts who know how to cover races. But ad reservations are in a slightly different category and are typically taken more seriously.

If outside groups become known as "bad actors," dramatically shifting or canceling ad reservations or not paying their bills, they risk straining the relationship with individual TV stations. Even though both parties are almost always in win-now mode, many operatives and strategists do consider the legacy - or potential mess - they are leaving behind for their successors, who will have the same broad goal of trying to maintain or obtain majorities in Congress. For example, one Pennsylvania TV station still hadn't forgiven a party group for an unpaid bill, six years later, according to a veteran strategist.

Bloated reservations can hurt a party in other ways as well.

"You don't want to play games because other people are building around what you put out," that party operative said. More specifically, campaign committees and candidates analyze a friendly super PAC's reservations and fill "holes" in the advertising schedule, accounting for places in the calendar that aren't covered by other ads. If those initial reservations are canceled, then the party risks interruption in its messaging at critical times in the campaign.

Additionally, flooding a market with ad reservations can drive up the demand and subsequent costs for everyone else, including allies and even the candidates, who rarely book TV ads this far out from Election Day. Stations have to offer candidates the lowest unit rate, but that rate can go up with demand.

There are always some strategic changes to initial reservations. Some races will evolve to be sure things or lost causes leading up to Election Day, prompting changes to, and sometimes cancellations, of initial plans.

But that doesn't mean the initial reservation plan was a giant bluff. And those later decisions usually come without consequence if they're made at least two weeks out from an election, when stations typically require payment.

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This story was originally published April 28, 2026 at 2:55 PM.