GOP's Tom Tiffany's Chances of Beating Barnes vs. Hong to Flip Wisconsin

Republican Representative Tom Tiffany is running competitively in Wisconsin‘s gubernatorial race despite the state’s strong disapproval of President Donald Trump, according to new polling that shows the congressman nearly tied with leading Democrats ahead of the August primary.

A Public Sentiment Institute survey of 880 registered voters and 877 likely voters conducted May 13-15 finds Tiffany trailing Democratic former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes 44.8 percent to 40.9 percent. Against state Representative Francesca Hong, Tiffany trails 40.5 percent to 39.7 percent, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The political climate appears tilted against Republicans. Trump carries a 57 percent disapproval rating in Wisconsin, and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 47.6 percent to 40.5 percent heading toward the November midterm elections. Yet Tiffany remains competitive in head-to-head matchups, suggesting his personal brand may transcend a potential Trump drag.

Tiffany Dominates Primary as Democrats Fracture

Tiffany has largely cleared the Republican field, commanding the primary with 71.7 percent support. The Democratic side tells a different story. Barnes leads at 24.1 percent, followed by Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez at 12.3 percent, state Assembly member Francesca Hong at 8.5 percent and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 8.0 percent. Nearly 39 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided heading into the August 11 primary.

That fragmentation is what political analysts see shaping the general election landscape. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, cautioned against over-interpreting the current matchup numbers.

“The Democratic race is still developing, with most candidates still little known and many undecided, while Tiffany is the only major GOP candidate,” Franklin told Newsweek. "Wisconsin is so polarized that we usually see very close statewide races. That closeness reflects the partisan balance in the state. I expect a competitive fall campaign but until we get a clearer picture of the Democratic field the current hypothetical votes are largely a reflection of partisanship rather than good measures of the unique strengths of individual candidates.”

Wisconsin voters have a history of splitting tickets. The state voted twice for Trump while twice electing Democrat Tony Evers as governor. Current polling shows Evers with a net approval rating of plus 12.1 percent, suggesting voters remain comfortable with divided government.

“I’ve been following Wisconsin politics since I was an undergrad at Wisconsin back in the ’60s,” Mordecai Lee, professor emeritus of political science at UW-Milwaukee, told Newsweek. “And if there’s one thing I’ve learned in the last 50 years, it’s that I always count on the unpredictability of the Wisconsin voter.”

Among the Democratic candidates, Hong represents Tiffany’s toughest matchup despite her weak primary position. She runs nearly even with him in the general election, according to the poll, while Barnes leads by 4 points. Barnes, a 2022 Senate candidate, carries higher name recognition but also higher negatives. Hong, a progressive, remains less defined to voters.

Evers’ 2022 Victory Sets Template

The 2022 gubernatorial race provides a useful baseline. Evers won reelection by 3.4 percentage points, defeating Republican Tim Michels 51.1 percent to 47.8 percent. The race was competitive throughout, with many polls showing Michels ahead in the weeks before Election Day.

Evers’ victory was considered a minor upset. He won his first term in 2018 by just 1.1 percentage point despite 2018 being a more favorable Democratic year nationally. In 2022, he became the first Wisconsin governor in 32 years from the same party as the sitting president to win reelection in a midterm year.

Economy and Trump Skepticism Drive Voter Sentiment

Wisconsin voters entering the 2026 cycle are driven primarily by economic anxiety and skepticism of the Trump administration, the Public Sentiment Institute poll shows.

Among all voters, 37.2 percent ranked economy, jobs and cost of living as their single top priority. The figure jumped to 66.6 percent among low-motivation voters, suggesting economic concerns could either mobilize or suppress turnout, depending on the campaign environment. Political corruption, lobbying and money in politics ranked second at 13 percent, followed by healthcare and Social Security at 10.9 percent and immigration at 9.4 percent.

Trump’s approval sits at 40 percent, with 57 percent disapproving. His disapproval runs deepest among college-educated voters, Milwaukee and Madison residents, and 2024 supporters of then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Specific issues compound his weakness. Disapproval of his handling of the Epstein files nets -32.5 points overall, worse than his job approval. His Iran policy handling nets -24.3 points.

What Earlier Polls and Prediction Markets Show

Earlier polling demonstrates movement in the race since March. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted March 11-18 found Tiffany commanding the Republican primary at 40 percent to Andy Manske’s 6 percent. On the Democratic side, Hong led at 14 percent, with Barnes at 11 percent and Crowley and Rodriguez tied at 3 percent each. Sixty-five percent were undecided.

By April, an RMG Research survey found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 50 percent to 43 percent, a slight tightening from the May poll’s 47.6 to 40.5 Democratic edge.

Prediction markets and election analysts reflect a competitive race. On Polymarket, the Democratic nominee holds a 79 percent chance of winning the governorship. Kalshi shows similar odds, with Democrats at 80 percent to 21 percent for Republicans. The Cook Political Report calls the race a toss-up.

What Happens Next

The August 11 Democratic primary will determine Tiffany’s general election opponent. The November 3 general election will also decide lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and all state legislative seats.

“Wisconsin absolutely refuse to be predictable,” Lee said. “There are half a dozen different scenarios of what could happen between now and the November election. If somebody offered to let me bet a nickel on the results of the governor’s race, I wouldn’t do it because I wouldn’t want to waste the nickel. That’s how close I believe it is.”

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This story was originally published May 19, 2026 at 12:17 PM.