How the Pennsylvania governor's race will help decide who controls the US House

PHILADELPHIA - Gov. Josh Shapiro and his Republican challenger, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity have a lot to prove over the next six months.

And come November, there's more than the governor's race on the line for them both. Shapiro, a rumored 2028 presidential hopeful, wants to deliver Democratic control of the U.S. House to flex his political muscle as Democrats seek a new standard-bearer for the party.

Garrity will need to generate excitement that draws GOP voters to the polls in key congressional districts to stop Democratic midterm gains - and prove to the state GOP that members made the right choice by endorsing her 15 months before Election Day as a more serious challenger to Shapiro.

Both Shapiro and Garrity ran unopposed in their respective primary elections on Tuesday to officially become their parties' nominees.

Shapiro - who plans to spend election night in purple Bucks County with County Commissioner Bob Harvie, the latest Democrat to try to unseat U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Pa.) - will enter the general election with a strong advantage as an incumbent governor with approval ratings hovering above 50%. He's also been elected three times statewide. Garrity, for her part, received the most votes of any state-level candidate in state history during the 2024 election, a record previously held by Shapiro.

Shapiro, 52, from Abington Township, is a moderate Democrat in his first term as governor of one of the most critical swing states in the country. He boasts a résumé of working across the aisle to "Get Stuff Done" - his frequently used motto - in Pennsylvania's split legislature, though he's struggled to get top Democratic priorities through a GOP Senate. In January, he released a memoir and he has been a frequent guest on national media over the last few months as he continues to grow his brand.

But his biggest test on the national stage is whether he can deliver excitement at the top of Pennsylvania's ticket to help Democrats flip four congressional seats in Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, and South Central Pennsylvania so his party can take back control of the U.S. House. He said Tuesday he's approaching those races with greater urgency, as Republicans nationally advance redistricting efforts to increase the number of GOP-controlled districts.

He's also trying to win a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg, giving him greater governing power over the state that last had Democrats controlling the executive branch, House and Senate in 1993 but only for one year.

After rolling up to Rydal West Elementary in a black Chevy Suburban with his wife, Shapiro cast his ballot Tuesday morning in his signature navy blue suit and shook hands with local committee before taking questions from reporters. He reminded Pennsylvanians that they'll play an outsized role in this year's midterm elections.

"I think it is very likely that the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives, who controls it, will be decided by how people vote here in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania," he said. "The only thing I'm focused on is winning a trifecta in Harrisburg in 2026, this year, and helping win up and down the ballot, including for those U.S. House races."

Shapiro has also taken a more commanding role in the state Democratic Party by installing ally Eugene DePasquale as chair and contributing more than $900,000 to the party's rebuild since last fall. He has promised to continue using his fundraising prowess and $37 million war chest toward helping Democrats win up and down the ballot.

Shapiro has hung his reelection campaign on winning those four seats as the antidote to "chaos, cruelty, and corruption" under Trump in Washington. If he's successful in helping flip them, he'll come out looking stronger as a national leader capable of delivering results in the Democratic Party, said Christopher Borick, a pollster and professor at Muhlenberg College.

"When you weigh in and you put your skin in the game as the governor's done, it's going to reflect upon his stature in the party when the cycle is over," Borick added, likening the move to California Gov. Gavin Newsom's successful work in redistricting his state to increase Democratic power there.

Garrity, 63, is a retired colonel from the U.S. Army reserves who grew up a few miles from the New York border in Northeastern Pennsylvania. She is running her campaign on the message that Pennsylvania is still well behind other states on education and economic growth, and crediting that to Shapiro's unfocused leadership of the state as he eyes a potential presidential run.

Sporting American flag sneakers on Tuesday outside a polling place near Harrisburg, Garrity said she feels the pressure to deliver for Republicans in November. "The top of the ticket, as we saw in ‘22, has a big impact on down ballot," Garrity said. "I'm gonna be strong."

But Garrity has struggled to keep up with Shapiro's fundraising, entering the primary election with $1.4 million, compared to Shapiro's $37.8 million in cash-on-hand.

U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., who endorsed Garrity, told the Pennsylvania Press Club in Harrisburg on Monday that Garrity has the odds stacked against her, as many political donors don't want to contribute to an incumbent's challenger, in anticipation that the incumbent will win again.

"Obviously she's an underdog, he's an incumbent. When you run against an incumbent, it's harder," McCormick said, speaking from experience. In the 2024 election, McCormick beat former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., who held the seat for 18 years. When McCormick first announced his campaign to challenge Casey, the prediction markets initially said he had a 3% chance of winning. McCormick said that even his dad, who was in the audience Monday, didn't believe he had a chance "until the day I won."

"Anything's possible in politics," McCormick added. "I wouldn't bet against her, but obviously it's a hard race."

Even if Garrity doesn't win in November, Pennsylvania's Republican Party is counting on her to rally the excitement needed to get enough GOP voters cast a ballot in those four competitive districts - and potentially set her up to run again statewide in 2028 for the congressional seat currently held by Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman.

Many Pennsylvania Republicans blame the state party's failure to endorse a candidate in the 2022 gubernatorial election as the reason why Democrats won so resoundingly that year, including taking over control of the state House for the first time in more than a decade. Republicans also often blame the then-gubernatorial nominee State Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, and his uber-conservative views for hurting the rest of the GOP candidates on the ticket.

Desperate not to repeat the same mistake, the state GOP endorsed Garrity in September 2025 to be the Republican candidate and to clear the field in order to avoid another crowded primary. Garrity was endorsed by Trump a few months later, and she remains supportive of him and his policies as Trump's approval ratings continue to decline in Pennsylvania.

"She, of course, has a lot to prove, as the party really rallied around her," Borick said. "They wanted her to be the nominee. They believed she would be the type of candidate that can be more competitive in a tough electoral year and even against a strong opponent in the form of Josh Shapiro."

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Staff writers Gabriela Carroll and Dana Munro contributed reporting to this article.

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This story was originally published May 19, 2026 at 7:02 PM.