Keisha Lance Bottoms' Chances of Beating Republicans to Flip Georgia

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, is set to face off against either Burt Jones or Rick Jackson, both Republicans, in Georgia's closely watched gubernatorial race in the 2026 midterm elections following a runoff between the GOP candidates.

Georgia remains one of the nation's most evenly divided battleground states, backing President Donald Trump by about 2 points in 2024 and former President Joe Biden by less than half a point in 2020. Despite its leftward drift, Democrats have struggled in recent gubernatorial races against Governor Brian Kemp, who cannot run again due to term limits.

Democrats hope a more favorable national environment and an open race in 2026 could give them a chance to win the Georgia gubernatorial race for the first time in more than 25 years.

Georgia Gubernatorial Primary: Who Won Democratic and Republican Nominations

Bottoms, whose mayoral tenure stretched from 2018 to 2022, won the Democratic nomination on Tuesday with 57.7 percent of the vote, with 461,672.

The GOP candidates head to a runoff after Jones received 281,383 votes for a total of 38.7 percent, while Jackson won 240,685, at 33.1 percent.

Georgia, once a more reliably Republican state, has shifted toward purple status over the past decade, becoming more willing to vote for Democrats in federal elections. It has recently elected two Democratic senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. But it has still favored Republicans for state offices in recent years. Georgia voters reelected Kemp by more than 7 points in 2022.

Ossoff is also up for reelection in 2026 in a race Republicans hope to contest, despite the incumbent senator's early polling lead.

Turnout will be critical to the general election outcome. Democrats perform best in Georgia when turnout among Black voters in Atlanta and across the state is strong-as was the result when Biden flipped the state in 2020. A key question facing Republicans in Georgia and other states is whether low-propensity Trump voters will be motivated to head to the polls in November, particularly as polls suggest his approval has suffered amid concerns around the cost of living and the Iran war.

Keisha Lance Bottoms' Chances of Flipping Georgia in November: What Polls and Prediction Markets Show

Only one poll of the Georgia gubernatorial race was made public prior to the primary election, and it gave Bottoms a lead over potential Republican candidates. It was conducted by Echelon Insights from April 3-9, 2026, among 407 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.5 percentage points.

In a matchup against Jackson, Bottoms received 49 percent, compared to Jackson’s 43 percent. Eight percent were undecided.

In a matchup against Jones, the numbers were identical: Bottoms received 49 percent, compared to Jones’ 43. Eight percent were undecided.

With no candidate reaching an outright majority in the poll, undecided voters will be critical to the race’s eventual outcome.

Prediction markets narrowly favor Democrats as of Tuesday, with Kalshi giving Democrats a 57 percent chance and Polymarket giving them a 62 percent chance of winning. That suggests traders see Democrats as a slight favorite to win, but it's still a competitive race.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told Newsweek the gubernatorial race should be "very competitive."

"All things being equal, the Republican candidate should have a slight edge," he said. "But if prices don’t start to come down, it makes the environment much tougher for Republicans everywhere, and the Democrats could have a real shot at GA governor."

Bottoms may not make a particularly strong candidate for Democrats, Swint said, noting that Atlanta mayors do not "have a good track record in Georgia statewide elections."

Election forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as a toss-up.

Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from a Lean Republican to a toss-up status in March.

"At the federal level, we have Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) as a favorite for reelection to the Senate. While it's easy to see some ticket-splitting benefiting Republicans in the other statewide races, we don't know that it would be enough to justify keeping the gubernatorial race two categories away, at Leans Republican," analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 19 update.

How Popular Is Donald Trump in Georgia?

Trump's presidency will loom over the race, as Democrats across the country aim to benefit from his dwindling approval nationwide. Democrats are banking on higher turnout, as seen in recent special elections across the country. Greater Democratic motivation to vote in November would be a boon for Bottoms.

In Georgia, Trump’s approval stood at 42 percent in a recent Emerson College poll, while slightly more than 51 percent disapproved of his job performance. That's roughly in line with his national polling, per Emerson. Its latest national poll, March 16-17, showed 51 percent of Americans disapproving of his performance and 42 percent approving.

Emerson surveyed 1,000 Georgia voters from February 28 to March 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Georgia’s Shift From Red to Purple

Georgia has shifted from a reliably Republican state into a true swing state over the last two decades, driven largely by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs. In fact, Atlanta's suburbs were among the only places in the country to get more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major shifts rightward elsewhere across the nation-a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.

Democrats hope those trends continue and accelerate in 2026 as they work to continue building progress in Georgia.

Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.

But Democrats have not won a Georgia gubernatorial race since 1998, when Democrat Roy Barnes carried the state. He went on to lose reelection four years later in 2002, when Republicans began their decades-long hold on state government.

So far in 2026, Democrats have seen strong results in the Peach State.

Democrats overperformed in the Georgia special election to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who resigned from Congress earlier this year. Republican Clay Fuller won the April 7 special election by about 11 points in the deep-red district, a significant narrowing compared to Trump's 37-point victory in the district in 2024.

Greene told Politico in April that Republicans should be concerned about those results.

"If you saw a big drop in my district for Republican votes, a drastic drop like that, that could very much affect the governor's race, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and of course Jon Ossoff's Senate seat that's up for reelection in 2026," she said. "That's what I saw right away, and of course it matches what we're seeing nationwide."

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 19, 2026 at 7:50 PM.