John Cornyn vs. Trump-Backed Ken Paxton: Final Polls and Odds
Voters in Texas head for the polls again Tuesday, to pick which Republican they want as their candidate for U.S. Senate in November’s midterms, with incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing the headwind of his opponent’s presidential backing.
After holding off on an endorsement seemingly as long as possible, President Donald Trump said last week he was backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term incumbent Cornyn, despite Trump and the senator’s relatively good relationship over the years.
Like other midterm races this year, Tuesday’s vote is a test of Trump’s popularity and sway, with the president having claimed-and often seen-that his endorsees win.
Paxton has been more consistently ahead of Cornyn in polls in recent weeks, showing his popularity among Republicans, but there have been warning signs elsewhere for the GOP that backing the attorney general could mean losing the seat altogether to Democratic State Senator James Talarico.
Senator vs. Attorney General: What Polls Show
Recent polling suggests a narrow but consistent advantage for Paxton in the Republican Senate runoff, with most reputable surveys showing him ahead of Cornyn by low single digits, while polling averages point to a slightly wider edge driven by consolidation among conservative voters.
Quantas Insights (May 21-23)
- Paxton: 52.7 percent
- Cornyn: 43.4 percent
- Margin: Paxton +9.3 (+3.5 percent MOE)
University of Houston Hobby School (April 28-May 1)
- Paxton: 48percent
- Cornyn: 45percent
- Undecided: 7percent
- Margin: Paxton +3 (within ~±2.8 MOE)
Global Strategy Group – Democrat sponsor(May 6-11)
- Paxton: 52 percent
- Cornyn: 40 percent
- Margin: Paxton 12 percent (+/-4 percent MOE)
The RealClearPolitics-style polling average (March–May)
- Paxton: ~48.8percent
- Cornyn: ~41.0percent
- Average margin: Paxton +7.8
The gap between Paxton and Cornyn widened over the last week, following Trump’s endorsement announcement.
What Prediction Markets Are Showing
Prediction markets showed Paxton with a significantly higher chance of winning the runoff than Cornyn on Monday, at 95 percent on the regulated market Kalshi at one point. Cornyn, by contrast, had a 4.4 percent chance of taking the nomination.
Another market, looking at the potential margin of victory in Tuesday’s vote, showed that participants felt a 10- to 15-point lead for Paxton was the most likely outcome, at 32 percent, with a more than 20-point gap coming in at around 14 percent as of Monday afternoon.
On Polymarket, Paxton showed a 77 percent chance of having a more than 9 percent lead over Cornyn, with another market showing him with a 96 percent chance of winning.
That chance had significantly increased following Trump’s endorsement a week ago. Before that, it had stood at 62 percent for Paxton and 36 percent for Cornyn.
What Trump Has Said
Trump solidified his support for the attorney general, writing May 19 on Truth Social: “Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate…He is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness."
Trump, having said Cornyn was a good man in his Paxton endorsement message a week ago, took to Truth Social again Sunday night to criticize the senator.
"Ken's opponent was VERY disloyal to me, as President, and didn't fight hard enough for the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT – VOTER I.D., PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP, NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS (with exceptions for Military, Illness, Disability, or Travel!)," Trump wrote of Cornyn.
"What more needs to be said??? Vote for Ken Paxton on Tuesday, HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!"
The president also said Paxton had been a great attorney general, as well as loyal to him as president.
The attorney general had responded to Trump’s praise on X May 19, saying, “I am incredibly honored to have President Trump's COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. No one has ever fought harder for the American people than President Trump, and I look forward to championing his America First agenda in the Senate!”
Who Will Face James Talarico?
Whoever wins Tuesday’s runoff will go head-to-head with Talarico for the Texas U.S. Senate seat in November. The state senator and pastor, who blends a faith-based platform with progressive politics, has built broad statewide support.
Despite Texas voting for Trump by double digits in 2024, Talarico is viewed as a formidable challenger capable of becoming the first Democrat to win a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1993.
Following Trump’s endorsement, Talarico said in a statement that it did not matter who won the runoff, adding, “We already know who we're running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.
“For decades, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have embodied a broken politics that enriches wealthy donors while costs skyrocket for the rest of us,” Talarico said. “Our movement to take back Texas for working people rises above party politics - because the biggest fight in this country is not left versus right, it's top versus bottom."
Political betting markets have reflected the competitive general election, with traders on regulated platform Kalshi giving Republicans a narrow 55 percent probability of holding the Texas Senate seat, versus 45 percent for Talarico over the weekend.
Another market on the platform looking at the exact outcome of the race gave Paxton a 57 percent chance of defeating Talarico, and a 42 percent chance of the Democrat emerging victorious, effectively pricing the November race as a toss-up.
Cornyn, speaking Sunday, said he felt he could keep hold of the seat for the GOP despite Talarico’s momentum.
“I won in 2020 by 10 points,” Cornyn told Fox News. “Ken Paxton, as you know, is a flawed candidate. He’s got scandal that follows him everywhere, he’s survived so far, but if James Talarico, who’s raised 26, 27 million dollars in the first quarter of this year alone, if he gets a chance to litigate all of these issues in the general election, when there’s just not Republicans voting, I think the seat’s very much at risk.”
2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
This story was originally published May 26, 2026 at 1:00 AM.