Low turnout leaves California primary unsettled as officials brace for ballot surge

With most California voters still sitting on their ballots ahead of Tuesday's primary, election officials are anticipating a late rush that could leave key races unsettled for days or weeks.

Participation in California and the Bay Area on Monday was lagging previous primaries, with only 17% of ballots returned statewide, according to the most recent data. In a familiar trend, that means Californians could wait weeks for final election results, as election workers process mailed ballots and cure mismatched or missing signatures. With so many undecided voters, the low turnout also means key races are far from settled - including the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.

"There's so much uncertainty right now," said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University. "Anybody who thinks this election right now is definitive, in terms of outcome, is greatly mistaken. There are just too many variables remaining."

Polling suggested former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, leads the crowded gubernatorial race. Trailing him in surveys were billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, also a Democrat, and Republican Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, who has the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

Data collected by Democratic consultants at Political Data Inc. show Republican voters returned more ballots than registered Democrats as of Friday. However, Democrats tend to vote later than their GOP counterparts and heavily outnumber them in California and the Bay Area.

"That's not going to be much of a factor at the end," Gerston said.

Meanwhile, statewide, just 8% of Latino voters had cast their ballot, compared to 17% of white or "other" voters. Young voters had largely stayed home as of Friday. Just 5% of voters between 18 and 34 had voted then, compared to 29% of senior voters.

Bay Area voters on Tuesday will also decide a slew of downballot races, from powerful statewide offices to proposed tax increases in Oakland and Contra Costa County, as well as city council races in San Jose.

Voters have until 8 p.m. Tuesday to cast their ballots in person or to stand in line at a voting center. County election offices post the locations and operating hours of voting centers and ballot drop-off sites on their websites. Mailed ballots are tallied up to a week after polls close, but only if they are postmarked by close of business on Election Day.

At this point, voters should use a dropbox or vote in person to ensure their ballot is counted, said Dawn Kruger, a spokesperson for the Contra Costa County Clerk and Recorder office.

Another reason to do so: U.S. Postal Service spokespersons have told voters never to mail their ballot within a week of election day. That new advice alarmed California election officials amid broader concerns over Trump administration efforts to limit voting by mail ahead of the November general election.

One local group taking the Postal Service's advice: The Santa Clara County Republican Party, which blasted out a notice to supporters in an email Monday.

"Do not drop your ballot off with USPS!" the email read. "But tell all your Dem friends to do so."

Elections experts are comparing turnout this month to prior primary elections in years when presidential candidates weren't on the ballot. That's because turnout is typically higher in general elections and presidential elections, Kruger said.

In the 2022 primary election, about 33% of registered voters participated. More than 70% of registered voters cast ballots in the 2024 general election, when Trump and Republicans swept back into power in Washington, D.C.

In Santa Clara County, 19% of registered voters had cast ballots as of Monday morning, said Michael Borja, spokesperson for the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters. Turnout was near 17% in Contra Costa County and Alameda County.

Borja said Santa Clara County officials still expect voter turnout between 35% and 45% when all is said and done. They're prepared to receive a "big influx" of ballots in the week ahead, he said.

"A lot of people," Borja said, "like to vote at the last minute."

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This story was originally published June 1, 2026 at 4:21 PM.