Josh Turek's Chances of Beating Ashley Hinson, According to Polls

Iowa state Representative Josh Turek is officially the Democratic nominee for Senate after winning his primary, but he may have a tough road ahead of him if he wants to beat Republican Representative Ashley Hinson.

Iowa Senator Joni Ernst’s retirement created an open seat in the Senate and possibly Democrats’ best chance to flip it in nearly 20 years. Incumbents win their reelections an overwhelming amount of the time, and in deep-red Iowa, it was unlikely a Democrat was going to be able to oust Ernst. Turek has positioned himself as being electable in a Republican-leaning area, given that he won his statehouse seat in a district that Trump carried three times.

However, that election victory came by only six votes in 2022, and polls show the general election is expected to be a tight race.

On Tuesday, Turek was declared the winner of the Democratic primary with 64 percent of the vote and 21 percent of the votes counted. Hinson was declared the winner earlier in the night with 76 percent of the vote and 13 percent of the vote counted.

Josh Turek's Chances of Beating Ashley Hinson

Turek is a two-term state representative from Council Bluffs, and a four-time Paralympian and two-time gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. His ability to win the election hinges on whether or not he can pull independents and disaffected Republicans into his orbit.

While History is on Hinson’s side, the limited polling suggests there could be a competitive race. An April survey by Echelon Insights showed Turek leading Hinson by one point. In the survey, he received 46 percent support in a hypothetical matchup against Hinson, who got 45 percent, with the remainder undecided.

A March survey from Democratic pollster GBAO found Turek leading Hinson by the same margin.

Republicans are favored to win the election, according to prediction markets. Kalshi gives Republicans a 61 percent chance of winning and Democrats a 39 percent chance. However, that gap has narrowed since the fall, when Republicans were favored to win by over 70 percent compared to Democrats’ 29 percent.

Polymarket gives Democrats essentially the same odds, with a 38 percent chance of winning compared to Republicans’ 63 percent. In November, Republicans had a 79 percent chance of winning compared to Democrats’ 21 percent.

Josh Turek’s Advantages

Turek has argued that Iowa voters are looking beyond partisan labels, emphasizing his ability to win crossover support. His campaign has highlighted outreach to Republican voters and independents, framing the race less as an ideological fight and more as a referendum on economic issues affecting working families.

He’s also repeatedly pointed to his ability to win his House seat in a heavy Trump area as evidence that he’s Democrats’ best chance at flipping the seat. He’s positioned himself as an underdog, something he believes will resonate with Iowa voters.

Turek’s also got the weak U.S. economy as an advantage. Midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power, and President Donald Trump is struggling to win voters over. Trump’s polling is being dragged down by the widespread anger over the economy, cost of living and the war in Iran. Democrats argue that issues like health care costs, housing affordability and agricultural pressures could shift the electorate in their direction.

These economic headwinds for Republicans may be particularly pronounced in Iowa. Trump’s tariffs hit farmers in the state especially hard, meaning they could vote for change or be so frustrated that they stay home and don’t vote, which plays to Turek’s advantage.

"We don't have to win this 100-0. I know this from representing a really red district," Turek recently told CNN. "There really is a lot of tribalism in this, but in a state like Iowa, where you've got 35 or 37 percent of the voting bloc that are going to be independents, they're the kingmakers in the process."

Turek also has a good fundraising machine behind him. VoteVets, a national Democratic veterans super PAC, has spent nearly $10 million to promote his candidacy. Turek didn’t serve in the military, but he told CNN his spina bifida disability is from his dad being exposed to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War while he was in the U.S. Navy.

"I think that I am really an example of the generational consequences of these forever wars, which I think has really resonated with people,” Turek told CNN.

Still, none of these advantages guarantees success. The race remains highly contingent on turnout, messaging and whether Turek can sustain support beyond Democratic strongholds.

Did Donald Trump Endorse Ashley Hinson?

Hinson has leaned into her loyalty and closeness to Trump, positioning herself as a top ally of the president. In September, Trump endorsed Hinson, calling her a “winner” and a “loving wife and proud mother.” He said that Hinson is working to promote the “Made in America” agenda, secure the southern border and stop illegal immigration.

Hinson has also been endorsed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who said Republicans need conservative fighters like Hinson in the Senate.

While Hinson is marketing herself to MAGA Republicans, she told The Hill that the endorsements alone aren’t going to win her the election.

"I am very pleased to have those endorsements, but I still go out and earn every single vote," she said. "That's how I've always done it. I always run like I'm 10 points behind. And then I go out and I listen to Iowans."

When Was the Last Time a Democrat Won an Iowa Senate Race?

Iowa, once a competitive swing state, has gone for Trump in the last three elections, and hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate in over a decade, highlighting just how difficult Turek’s battle to win could be.

The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Iowa was in 2008, when Tom Harkin was reelected. Since then, Republicans have held the state's Senate seats. Iowa's federal representation is also now entirely Republican, and the GOP has dominated recent statewide contests.

The state's transformation has been driven in part by changes in its electorate, particularly among rural and working-class voters. These shifts have made statewide victories significantly more difficult for Democrats, who must now rebuild coalitions that once allowed them to compete consistently.

For Turek, this history presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While it highlights the steep climb Democrats face, it also reinforces his campaign's central message-that Iowa is not permanently out of reach but is waiting for a candidate who can reconnect with voters who feel left behind.

Whether that argument resonates in 2026 may determine not only the outcome of this race but also the future competitiveness of Democrats in Iowa.

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This story was originally published June 2, 2026 at 6:33 PM.