Steve Hilton's Chances of Beating Becerra to Flip California: New Poll

Democrat Xavier Becerra enters the general election for California governor with a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton, according to a new poll.

The former Health and Human Services secretary led Hilton 52 percent to 31 percent among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. The remainder were undecided.

“It looks very much like a traditional, partisan-based general election, with most of the Democrats, over 80 percent, behind Becerra as the campaign starts,” IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said. “Even though Hilton has over 80 percent of the Republicans, the Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 points in the state, and that gives the Democratic candidates a huge advantage.”

The survey was conducted online among 8,578 registered California voters from May 19 to 24, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

What the Poll Shows

The results reflect near-total partisan loyalty on both sides. Among Democrats, 82 percent said they would support Becerra in the general election, while 84 percent of Republicans said the same about Hilton.

The critical battleground is voters registered as no party preference or with other parties, who make up almost a third of the state electorate. Among those voters, 43 percent backed Becerra, 28 percent supported Hilton, and 29 percent were undecided.

Becerra led across nearly every demographic and geographic subgroup. He held a 65-to-21 advantage in the San Francisco Bay Area and a 54-to-21 lead in Los Angeles County. The only region where Hilton led was the North Coast and Sierra Nevada area, which accounts for roughly 2 percent of the state electorate.

President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, which helped him consolidate Republican support in the primary, is expected to become a liability in the general. The poll found that 69 percent of California voters disapprove of Trump’s performance, while 29 percent approve.

“A majority of Californians have a very strong negative view of the president, so Hilton’s backing by the president will not be nearly as beneficial to him in the general as it was in the primary,” DiCamillo said.

The poll also found that Becerra was the only major candidate to end the primary with a net-positive favorability rating among the overall electorate. Just before the June 2 primary, 44 percent of likely voters viewed him favorably compared to 38 percent unfavorably. Hilton was underwater at 31 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable.

How the Race Got Here

Becerra’s position at the top of the November ballot caps a remarkable three-month rise. He was polling at 5 percent in a March IGS survey, too low to be invited to a candidate debate.

His fortunes turned when former Representative Eric Swalwell, one of the Democratic frontrunners, dropped out of the race in April after he was accused of sexual assault and misconduct, which he has denied. Democratic voters and interest groups quickly consolidated behind Becerra, who pitched himself as an experienced hand with a record of fighting the Trump administration, having filed 122 lawsuits against the Trump White House during his tenure as California attorney general.

“Really gave Becerra an opening and he capitalized on it,” DiCamillo said of Swalwell’s exit.

With 91 percent of ballots tallied, Becerra finished first in the primary with 27.9 percent of the vote. Hilton finished second with 25 percent. Billionaire Tom Steyer, a Democrat who self-funded his campaign to the tune of $216 million, finished third with 22.5 percent and conceded Tuesday night.

Though Steyer had aggressively courted progressive voters and secured endorsements from California Representative Ro Khanna and Our Revolution, a group founded by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Becerra outperformed him among that constituency. Among voters who self-identified as progressive, 39 percent backed Becerra compared to 29 percent for Steyer, the pre-primary IGS poll found.

Can a Republican Flip California?

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California by nearly two to one. No Republican has won a statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected governor in 2006. Prediction markets price Hilton’s general election chances at roughly 9 percent.

Earlier in the cycle, the prospect of an all-Republican November ballot was real: With a crowded Democratic field and two consolidated Republican candidates, analysts warned that vote-splitting could lock Democrats out entirely. Trump’s endorsement of Hilton ended that scenario, stranding Bianco and narrowing the Republican threat to a single lane.

Hilton argues that voter frustration with 16 years of uninterrupted Democratic governance is enough to rewrite the map.

“I think it’s just obvious that these 16 years of Democrat progressive governance have been an unmitigated disaster, and a very expensive one,” he told Newsweek in a past interview.

Most analysts, however, remain skeptical.

When Was the Last Time a Republican Won a California Governor Race?

Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican to win the California gubernatorial election, when he was reelected in 2006.

At the time, Republicans were on a much more even playing ground when it came to registered voters. At the time of Schwarzenegger’s reelection, there were 5.4 million registered Republicans and 6.7 million registered Democrats.

Now, there are over 10 million registered Democrats and only about 5 million registered Republicans in the state.

What Do California Governor Race Odds Show?

Prediction markets are pricing Becerra as a heavy favorite to win in November.

As of Thursday, Polymarket has him at roughly 87.9 percent. Kalshi puts him at 72 percent. Steyer sits in second on both platforms at just under 10 percent.

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This story was originally published June 11, 2026 at 10:44 AM.