Which WA races are most competitive in 2026? Here are the swing districts
This November, all 98 House and 24 Senate seats in Olympia are up for election on the midterm ballot — some of which are happening in the state’s most competitive districts.
More than a third of the state’s legislative districts had bipartisan representation in their delegation in 1991, The Spokesman-Review reported in 2020. But such swing districts dwindled to three out of 49 over the course of three decades.
Democratic communications strategist Erik Houser told McClatchy that today, the three districts with a split-party delegation are the 10th, 26th and 18th LDs.
Over the past decade, since the rise of President Donald Trump, “there are less swing districts than there used to be,” Houser said.
What were once quite-contested districts in east King County and parts of Pierce and Snohomish counties have gone solidly blue, he said.
In the 26th LD covering parts of Pierce and Kitsap counties, the majority party has the opportunity to pick up a seat left by Republican Rep. Michelle Valdez (formerly Caldier), who isn’t seeking reelection. Last year Valdez squared off for the district’s Senate seat, but Democratic Sen. Deb Krishnadasan ultimately prevailed.
The 26th Senate contest proved to be an expensive race as both Democrats and Republicans fought for a chance to sway the political scales — a trend that’s continuing in the district’s races this year, Public Disclosure Commission data show.
Last year’s Senate showdown in the 26th saw nearly $4 million in spending by outside groups and candidates, the Washington State Standard reported in November.
Aside from the spot left open in the lower chamber by Valdez, Democratic Rep. Adison Richards in the 26th is vying for reelection. He’ll face Republican David Olson and Democrat Natalie Bornfleth for Position 1.
Position 2, currently held by Valdez, is being eyed by Randy Phillips, who has stated no party endorsement; Democrats Tedd Wetherbee and Renee Hernandez Greenfield; and Republican Katy Cornell, who has received Valdez’s endorsement.
Krishnadasan, meanwhile, faces Republican challenger Gary Parker.
The state House has seats that Democrats can flip this year, Houser said — including in the 17th, 18th and 26th districts — but the Senate map is more of a challenge because only half of the seats are up. There will be more opportunities to pick up seats during the next presidential cycle, he said.
That being said, one current race to watch is in the 42nd Legislative District in Whatcom County, which has an open upper-chamber slot. Democratic Sen. Sharon Shewmake is not seeking reelection.
Houser said Senate Democrats will be very focused on defending those 26th and 42nd LD seats.
Voters are upset by Trump’s “overreach” and a recent Supreme Court decision that watered down the Voting Rights Act, he added.
“Voters are not happy with the direction of this country, and historical trends suggest that they will take out that unhappiness on any Republican that’s on their ballot,” he said.
Valdez told McClatchy she’s concerned that what’s happening at the federal level will influence the outcome of the upcoming state elections.
Valdez said that the voices of swing-district voters, like those in Gig Harbor or Port Orchard, can hold more weight than voters in the Democratic stronghold of Seattle.
“I think probably that the voters in swing districts have more power than what they realize,” she said. “They need to do the research and make sure that they’re voting for candidates who will stand up for the people.”
Who’s running in the 10th LD?
Another district mentioned by Houser — the 10th LD — includes Island County and parts of Skagit and Snohomish counties. It’s represented by Republican Sen. Ron Muzzall and Democratic Reps. Clyde Shavers and Dave Paul.
Shavers has a Republican opponent in Robert “Chili” Hicks, while Republicans Carrie R. Kennedy and Tim Hazelo are gunning for Paul’s post.
Who’s running in the 18th LD?
The 18th Legislative District, which includes part of Clark County, is home to Democratic Sen. Adrian Cortes and Republican Reps. John Ley and Stephanie McClintock.
This year Democrat Randi L. Knott is challenging McClintock, while Democrat Deken Letinich will challenge Ley.
Could Democrats secure a two-thirds supermajority?
When mulling whether Democrats could gain a two-thirds supermajority this cycle, Western Washington University political science professor Todd Donovan said no. There just aren’t enough seats in play to get the Dems up to that threshold in either chamber, he said.
“Even if there’s a big wave towards the Democrats, it’s hard to think that they’re going to benefit much in terms of getting a supermajority,” he said.
Today the Democrats hold a 30-19 majority in the state Senate and 59-39 in the House.
Turning away from the Legislative Building, Donovan said that there’s a set of interesting races happening in the Temple of Justice. Voters will get to decide this fall who they want to see on the high court’s bench in five Supreme Court justice elections.
This comes as the court is poised to consider the constitutionality of the state’s new income tax on high earners, which has attracted legal challenge.
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