Amid light rail money crunch, what now for West Seattle, Ballard, Everett?

In the weeks since Sound Transit fulfilled its mission to cross Lake Washington, with the world's only passenger trains on a floating bridge, the community's grand-opening high is wearing off.

Accusations of betrayal and poor management are suddenly widespread as the region struggles to launch its next light rail routes. Stations promised to voters in 2016 - in Ballard, South Seattle and Tukwila - were deemed unaffordable in a proposed project list this month, putting their futures in doubt.

The reality of a nearly $35 billion funding gap has set in.

After the party, it's a bucket of cold water," said Seattle City Councilmember Dan Strauss of Ballard, a transit board member.

Other destinations, including Everett, West Seattle, Tacoma, South Kirkland and Issaquah, are still deemed within reach, but many lack clear completion dates.

Residents who have waited decades for their promised light rail stops and paid Sound Transit taxes since 1997 are beside themselves. The Sodo-to-Ballard line, for instance, is now proposed to end at Seattle Center, forgoing three stops, including in Ballard's high-ridership neighborhood of apartments and condos near Market Street.

Sound Transit's governing board is rushing toward a self-imposed deadline of May 28 to issue a roster of projects considered doable between now and 2052.

Board members are careful to say that no light rail stations have been abandoned, as money will still be set aside for design work on stops that, at least for now, are considered too expensive to build. To surrender would subject local politicians to constituent wrath.

Stations that survive the cut also get money for further engineering - and a political leg up because the 18-member board of elected officials may balk at unraveling whatever consensus they reach now.

One more victory party, to open Pinehurst Station in North Seattle, is expected by late summer, the last in a two-year flurry of expansions that reached Lynnwood, Redmond, Federal Way and, this spring, across the lake.

After Pinehurst, it will be years before Sound Transit, wrestling with construction-related inflation, elaborate designs and stifling red tape, can pull off another growth spurt.

Here are glimpses of the road ahead:

West Seattle on deck

The first big extension in the 2030s could be West Seattle, which has the advantage of a finished environmental impact statement. For now, it is on the affordable list. The $5 billion line (current dollars) would start in Sodo and cross the Duwamish River to Delridge, finally climbing into Alaska Junction.

To save money, an Avalon station has been cut, allowing a straighter, simpler tunnel to Alaska Junction. That leaves only two stations on the peninsula, and shrinks the area where walking to rail would be easy. Daily ridership is forecast at around 25,000 boardings, which translates into $200,000 capital cost per customer, expensive by world standards.

Political energy has grown to avoid further delays and try for a 2032 opening. New board members Katie Wilson, Seattle's transit-activist mayor, and Metropolitan King County Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda, of West Seattle, fanned the optimism at a crowded April 1 forum. Mosqueda asserted the project is "shovel-ready now," while Wilson predicted "shovels in the ground this year."

That's an overexuberant view, given the corridor is not fully engineered and lacks clear funding.

The federally approved environmental statement allows preliminary work to begin. Crucial underground tests, property acquisitions and advertising for construction contracts can start this year, said Sound Transit spokesperson Amy Enbysk.

Board Chair Dave Somers, the Snohomish County executive, said West Seattle is a few steps ahead of other lines. But if someone touts a 2026 groundbreaking, "that characterization is misleading," he said.

"There's a bit of gaming on, and they want to keep momentum, but we are not ready to sign huge contracts to begin construction," said Somers.

The three-county board says completing the regional "spine" near I-5 - north to Everett and south to Tacoma - remains the No. 1 priority. Everett Mayor Cassie Franklin, in particular, questions the wisdom of billions for West Seattle before the entire spine is assured.

Transit staff now say the West Seattle line may compete for up to $3 billion in grants, aided by easier Federal Transit Administration criteria, instead of $1 billion previously assumed. The possible windfall makes West Seattle more politically appealing if leaders think it can ease overall budget pressure.

Everett's affordability

Next up could be a 16.3-mile extension from Lynnwood to downtown Everett. It's still considered affordable at $6.8 billion, mostly from Snohomish County taxpayers, to serve a predicted 27,000 daily boardings.

That expense includes a bend west to reach Paine Field's 30,000-plus aviation and manufacturing jobs.

Somers is hellbent on delivering the project. No tunnels are needed, and land is available near freeways, keeping costs under control. Still, there's no new target date for the whole line, previously aimed at 2041.

Future ridership appears flimsy, barring radical shifts in commute patterns. It's doubtful many Boeing workers, who drive or carpool to vast surface lots today, would go from Lake Stevens or Arlington to catch a train, ride it to the future SW Everett Industrial Center Station, then shuttle by employer vans to factories and workshops. Only 3% arrive by transit now, and only 1,500 daily train boardings are forecast at that station.

Sound Transit could add riders by catering to future airline passengers, but so far, the board has preferred station sites far from the terminal - considered easier to build and mismatching the county's aspiration to develop a midsized airport someday, like Spokane or Orange County, Calif.

Asked about that dilemma, Somers said officials will seek a public-private partnership to build a second Paine Field station, for airline customers and employees.

Ballard's disappointment

The toughest project in the region, a mostly tunneled line for 7.7 miles from Sodo to Ballard, is estimated to need a bank-breaking $23 billion. Once promised by 2035, it's now judged unaffordable until 2052 or later.

Current proposals end the line at Seattle Center and fall short of Smith Cove, Interbay and a Ship Canal tunnel into Ballard.

"If we committed to go all the way to Ballard, we wouldn't do Tacoma and Everett because we wouldn't afford it, and so that's not on the table," Somers said.

Supporters of Ballard rail have marched along the Ballard Bridge and through Interbay, and more than 200 attended a Ballard forum last week with lawmakers and council members.

A forecast last week says the full route to Ballard would serve 137,000 riders per day, including those who formerly rode buses. But curtailing the line at Seattle Center cuts that by 34,000. Regional capacity would grow from having two light rail tunnels instead of one downtown.

Councilmember Strauss emphasized how strongly neighbors backed the ST3 tax measure in 2016. Precinct-level yes votes ran 70% to 80%, reflecting enthusiasm to reach Ballard.

"Anything short of that is unacceptable," he said.

City Councilmember Bob Kettle warned Seattle Center would be a terrible endpoint, and connections are poor to buses, compared with the roomier station sites envisioned farther north. "In trying to solve one problem, don't create two or three others," he said.

It's no surprise the job would be pricey. The full corridor includes tricky tunneling below Uptown, South Lake Union and downtown, with stations as deep as 145 feet.

In the quest to lower costs along the line, a once-taboo idea has returned: Consolidate the ST3 plan's Denny and South Lake Union stations, five blocks apart, into a single stop at Denny Way and Westlake Avenue. The move would save up to $1.7 billion, according to transit staff.

Somers agreed this month to fund 100% of design work for Ballard, a concession colleagues lauded as advancing the eventual project. The board increased a major consulting contact to a total $345.6 million, to complete preliminary engineering and the environmental statement within 20 months.

Somers said the point is to be ready in case Ballard becomes affordable.

Seattle "could run another levy, they could do a transportation district," Somers said. "All of a sudden, the federal government could change their minds and send billions of dollars our way. … We're not saying never in Ballard."

Wilson said last week she doesn't know whether a Seattle tax increase will be needed to fully fund the Ballard route and a South Seattle station at Graham Street that's also at risk: "I don't think anyone knows, right? I think that we have a lot of work to do before we come to the conclusion that we need a new tax to deliver these projects."

King County Executive Girmay Zahilay, asked about new city or county taxes, said, "I think that could be an option. That's not my focus right now, because I think there are still options that I want to exhaust before going there."

More lines uncertain

Other parts of the region are anxious, too.

Neighbors are rallying to protect infill stations that were promised by 2031 at Graham Street in South Seattle, and on Boeing Access Road in Tukwila, but are now labeled unaffordable.

"We are not invisible. We are here to fight for it, so I hope everybody is with me on this fight," Agnes Navarro, executive director of Filipino Community of Seattle, said at a "Transit Justice Now" meeting last week. The Graham Street station would make life easier for older adults to go food shopping, and for students, she said.

Looking south, the extension from Federal Way to Tacoma, at more than $5 billion, is considered affordable.

Tacoma's streetcar extension, nearly cut from the plans, is back in business, to grow westward by 2043 from Hilltop to Tacoma Community College.

A Sounder S Line commuter train segment south to DuPont is likely to be scrapped, and the lightly used N Line in Snohomish County retired in 2033.

On the Eastside, the South Kirkland to Issaquah corridor has staved off elimination and been assigned a 2050 opening.

Sound Transit CEO Dow Constantine, who championed the ST3 plan for years as a board member, insists light rail's main pieces will eventually be delivered.

"There's no world in which we don't end up with Ballard and West Seattle. We are committed to getting those things done, he told reporters during a demonstration ride days before the 2 Line joined Seattle with the Eastside on March 28.

As politicians try to keep good vibes, Constantine has been highlighting the marquee Lake Washington route, its arduous journey from the 2008 ballot through construction repurposed as a source of confidence. A region that builds a floating-bridge train can persevere the next 54 miles.

Or, at least, make good on a big part of that trek.

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