What a ‘very strong' El Niño could mean for WA
El Niño, a natural warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean, is here and expected to become one of the strongest in recent history.
Meteorologists fear this year's El Niño will further heat a planet already warmed by fossil fuel pollution and lead to billions of dollars in damages from heat waves, floods and droughts.
But what does it mean for the Pacific Northwest?
What is with this predicted 'super' El Niño?
For the last few months, you might have seen in the news warnings of a so-called super El Niño."
The characterization comes as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast predicted a 63% chance that the temperature in the tropical Pacific will rise over 2 degrees Celsius or a "very strong" El Niño in the November and January window. (NOAA also predicts a 33% chance of a "strong" El Niño and a 10% chance of a moderate El Niño in the same window.)
But a "super" El Niño isn't strictly scientific, said Karin Bumbaco, deputy state climatologist for the Washington State Climate Office.
"I just think (that term) can cause a little bit of unnecessary hype," she said.
The term likely rises out of the fact that the forecast certainty around El Niño came earlier this year and that this year's weather pattern is favored to be "very strong" between November and January, Bumbaco said.
Typically, weather models struggle to predict this time of year what the fall and winter months might look like in the equatorial Pacific, but this year has been an anomaly, she said.
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El Niño specifically refers to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a region that influences weather globally, especially in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. This region typically switches at varying degrees between warm temperatures - El Niño - and cooler temperatures - La Niña.
This pattern manifests differently across the globe. In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño is linked with dampening hurricane season. In Washington, it's associated with warmer, drier winters, while in California, it's wetter and cooler weather, Bumbaco said.
So what does this mean for the Northwest?
It's a bit of a dice roll.
In the Pacific Northwest, El Niño typically is linked to warmer and drier winters with a lower-than-normal snowpack, said Bumbaco.
That's not great news given that last winter saw the third-lowest snowpack since 1985, and the state is already headed into its fourth drought in a row. But this winter's El Niño doesn't necessarily mean the state will be guaranteed to break any records, she said.
Whether an El Niño or La Niña is weak or very strong doesn't mean less or more severe weather impacts, Bumbaco said. That designation is determined by how warm or cool the tropical Pacific is and simply increases or decreases the likelihood of a warmer, drier winter, she said.
For example, there have only been three very strong El Niño events since 1950 - the winters of 2015 to 2016, 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998. Contrary to what's expected from El Niño, those years Washington experienced wet weather and made it to spring with a snowpack around median. And then last winter, which was a weak La Niña event, Washington saw a very low snowpack.
However, on average, El Niño events (which have occurred three to four times since 2010) are typically associated with lower-than-normal snowpacks, Bumbaco said.
What about marine heat?
This year's El Niño event comes as a large marine heat wave has impacted parts of the West Coast since last summer, bringing up comparisons to "the blob," or the marine heat wave that persisted between 2013 and 2016, according to NOAA.
During that time, the West Coast saw harmful algal blooms, malnourished sea lions and species like squid and albacore tuna shifting north, according to NOAA. Seabird populations also suffered, and the risk for whale entanglements increased as cold-water habitat narrowed.
This year's El Niño's ocean warming could potentially spell similar trouble for ocean species and the state's salmon and shellfish fisheries, said University of Washington Oceanography affiliate professor Jan Newton, though it's still too early to say whether this year will be as dire.
"There's so many variables, we don't know how this will play out," she said.
How impactful this year's El Niño will be on the coast will largely depend on how strong this year's "upwelling season" will be, Newton said.
That refers to the period between spring and early fall when cold nutrient-rich water from the ocean depths churns through the coastline. Ecosystems and valuable fisheries depend on this process to keep water well-oxygenated and nutrient rich.
This balance is maintained by winds shifting direction between north and south, though climate change and a larger difference between land and ocean temperatures are expected to drive winds toward the south, leading to more areas of low oxygen.
Puget Sound, which is shallower than the West Coast's continental shelf, is already seeing warmer temperatures due to El Niño and this week's heat wave, Newton said.
While a warming planet generally means heavier storms, it's not clear how climate change will impact the swing between El Niño and La Niña," Bumbaco said.
"The science isn't settled, and the jury is still out on that one, she said.
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This story was originally published June 22, 2026 at 6:34 AM.