Will Washington have a warm spring? Here’s a look at the state’s extended weather forecast
Meteorological spring officially started on Friday, March 1, and astronomical spring begins on March 19.
The meteorological calendar breaks the four seasons into distinct months, with spring being March, April and May. Meanwhile, the astronomical calendar bases its months on the equinoxes and solstices, with spring starting on the vernal equinox.
Calling it spring on March 1 is one thing, but will it feel like spring this month? Punxsutawney Phil, the weather-forecasting groundhog, predicted that spring would come early this year, but will that be the case in Washington state?
Here’s when you can expect temperatures to warm up and when it’ll start to feel truly like spring.
Washington’s short-term spring forecast
In the past week or so, temperatures in eastern Washington have been between 30 and 60 degrees consistently, according to the National Weather Service in Pendleton. These back-and-forth temperatures will continue in the coming days, with some rain and intermittent chances of snow this week. Strong wind gusts are expected across the Evergreen State, but specifically on the east side.
The western part of the state, particularly around Puget Sound, will be milder.
“Western Washington tends to be warmer anyway,” Kirby Cook, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Seattle, said in an interview. “Climatologically, it gets colder east of the Cascades. And a lot of that is our proximity to the ocean; we’re lower in elevation, so we tend to be warmer anyway. On any given day during the winter, you’ll certainly see overnight low temperatures aren’t as cold on our side while they frequently get below freezing over there.”
In fact, over the last few months, western Washington has seen temperatures that are slightly above normal due in part to El Niño.
”It’s an El Niño year, and that’s typical; we tend to be warmer than normal during El Niño years,” Cook said.
On average, winter was warmer than usual. Here is how temperatures have been stacking up over the last few months and the historical average:
- December 2023 average: 45.5 degrees (warmer than normal)
- December historical 1991-2023: 38.9 degrees
- January 2023 average: 41.4 degrees (warmer than normal)
- January historical 1991-2023: 39.6 degrees
- February 2023 average: 42.7 degrees (warmer than normal)
- February historical 1991-2023: 40.7 degrees
When will spring arrive in WA?
While much of the country will enjoy a warm March, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that the Pacific Northwest overall will likely have a colder-than-average March.
“You can expect above-average March temperatures along the East Coast (except for Florida), in the eastern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, from the Deep South up into Texas and Oklahoma, on the West Coast, and in Alaska,” the Almanac states in its spring weather forecast, which was last updated on Feb. 26.
“Near- to below-average temperatures are largely anticipated elsewhere,” the Almanac continues.
The Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has a similar forecast.
The CPC forecasts that most of Washington will have equal chances of either above- or below-normal temperatures, while most of the Midwest and eastward will see above-average temperatures.
While the start of March has been on the colder side, things will warm up soon.
“The monthly temperature outlook is equal chances, so that means there’s basically a 50-50 chance for either above-normal or below-normal temperatures for the whole month,” Cook said. “If we look at the 8-14 day forecast it looks like we’ve got above-normal odds for warmer than normal conditions over the next two weeks. It looks like we’re going to trend warmer in the next 8-14 days.”
Fortunately, things will improve for all of Washington, including the east side, in April and May.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts that April will be “warmer than normal” and May will be “generally on the drier side” for the Pacific Northwest.
This story was originally published March 5, 2024 at 12:18 PM with the headline "Will Washington have a warm spring? Here’s a look at the state’s extended weather forecast."
