Growth is inevitable, let’s do it well

Brace yourself: a continuing wave of population growth means that one-third of the jobs and housing that will exist in Thurston County in 2035 will be created in the coming 20 years.

The Thurston Regional Planning Council estimates we’ll be home to an additional 120,000 people by 2035.

The county has grown from 140,000 people in 1985 to about 250,000 in 2010. Pastures where cows once grazed are now housing subdivisions. Four lane roads with roundabouts have replaced country lanes, and vast new developments seem to appear overnight.

Our county, and our cities, are being transformed before our eyes.

Since the 1990 passage of the state’s Growth Management Act, counties and cities have struggled to plan for growth, and to restrain the suburban sprawl that was widely recognized as an unsustainable assault on farm and forest land and an impossible burden on budgets for roads, sewers, schools and other public facilities.

Since 1990, urban planners, citizen activists and elected leaders have crafted comprehensive plans that lay out a vision of more compact, denser cities that are walkable, bike-able, and better served by public transportation.

Urban density makes sense not only because it preserves farms and forests, but also because it saves tax dollars for services such as water, sewers, and streets.

For residents, too, urban density offers a lifestyle that can save a lot of money on transportation costs, and provide the convenience of close-by stores, services and entertainment, and more closely knit neighborhoods.

For people and governments alike, urban density is a prerequisite to energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and reduction of climate-changing emissions.

But urban density is not without downsides. If done badly, it can be ugly and feel overcrowded. And even if it’s done well, it requires jarring changes.

A new, multifamily development may require a street widening that puts traffic closer to existing front yards. New buildings may block a view. And we’re all human, and our default setting is generally to want everything to stay the way it is.

But consider just the city of Olympia. In the next 20 years, it’s predicted to become home to 20,000 new residents. The city’s plan calls for housing 5,000 of them downtown, and distributing the remaining 15,000 elsewhere in the city.

The new, seven-story apartment building that is now altering the skyline of downtown Olympia will add 138 units. If you assume 2.4 people per unit (close to the current but declining average of 2.47), it would take more than 2,000 new housing units to accommodate them, or roughly 15 more buildings of that size — or a much larger number of smaller ones. Either way, that kind of growth means a dramatic identity change for downtown.

And accommodating another 15,000 elsewhere in the city won’t be easy, either. The logic of creating walkable, compact communities means more housing along urban corridors, close to bus lines. This will cause consternation in adjacent, existing neighborhoods.

Lacey and Tumwater face similar challenges, but Lacey has a huge urban growth area, and is likely to continue its suburban trajectory; planners expect 7,000 more people within Lacey’s city limits, and another 20,000 in its urban growth area.

Tumwater expects 17,000 more people, with 11,000 inside today’s city limits.

For all three cities, population growth presents a huge challenge to plan well, design well, and preserve historic buildings and open space so that we can protect the qualities we cherish.

We don’t have a choice about whether to grow, but it is truly up to us how we grow, and what our communities look like 20 years from now.

This story was originally published September 6, 2015 at 6:08 AM with the headline "Growth is inevitable, let’s do it well."