Bum blockades, I-5 snarls, and climate change

The Great Depression of the 1930s was the era of the Dust Bowl, the terrible drought that decimated the nation’s Midwest. As living conditions became unbearable, many people fled the region.

Many migrants arriving at the California state line in February 1936 were met by armed City of Los Angeles police officers. It was called the “Bum Blockade.” Families with all their possessions were turned away. In two months, before the officers were withdrawn, an estimated 11,000 citizens were denied entry into California. Finally, in 1941, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states had no right to restrict interstate movement of Americans.

But that’s just history. What’s that got to do with anything today in Thurston County?

Let’s take a look at the Sustainable Thurston project, an effort led by the Thurston Regional Planning Council (TRPC) starting in 2011. This work produced a vision for a sustainable future for our region, as well as goals to achieve the vision. How are we doing so far? The report cards issued by the TRPC are mixed.

One goal is “to move toward a carbon-neutral community.” The report card says: “Stormy, concerns for the future.” Why is that? One target is to reduce our total greenhouse emissions here by 25% from the levels in 1990. By one measure, per-capita emissions, we’ve done rather well, reducing that by over 20% in the quarter century from 1990 to 2015. Yet our total emissions in that time have actually increased by nearly 40%.

The culprit is population growth. In that same time period, the county swelled from about 161,000 residents to over 267,000. To reduce our total emissions now to the target level would require slashing our current per-capita emissions by about half. That target seems unattainable in the near future.

Here’s another example: a target in the same goal is to reduce our annual per-capita vehicle miles traveled in region to 1990 levels by 2020. Comparing 1990 and 2015, our per-capita miles traveled are actually down about 15% — success! But once again, the increase in population means that our annual total miles traveled ballooned by nearly 40%.

If you don’t enjoy all these numbers, think of this another way. While each of us may be driving fewer miles, there are so many more of us driving that total miles driven is way up. Just drive I-5 from Lacey to U.S. 101 in the morning, or try the reverse in late afternoon. You don’t have to crunch numbers to understand the reality of what population increase means to traffic.

Part of the important work at TRPC is to provide forecasts of population growth for policymakers in local government. This data is crucial to making decisions on road and other infrastructure improvements, planning for orderly growth in an expanding metro area, and working to mitigate the effects of rapid growth on our quality of life.

Here’s my recurring nightmare. Climate change is already having serious effects on our nation. The examples are everywhere. Raging fires sweeping through California, followed by widespread power outages as utilities try to prevent still more fires. Brutal heat waves in the southern tier of the country. Giant storms flooding widespread areas in the South and the Midwest. We are woefully far behind in responding to the challenges of this climate crisis.

It doesn’t seem too far-fetched to think that many people living in other regions might think the time has come to move. The Pacific Northwest looks mighty attractive. What if our best projections for future growth are low — way low?

TRPC and its partners are in the early stages of developing a Climate Mitigation Plan for our region. This builds on earlier work, such as the Thurston Climate Adaptation Plan of 2018. Visit the website at www.trpc.org to read this and other documents. One key action each of us can take is to educate ourselves on these issues.

The current effort is crucial to our quality of life. By this spring, there should be a draft Climate Mitigation Plan out for public review. We need to honor this work by participating. Attend a community meeting. Provide your own comments. Step up.

Remember that Bum Blockade of so long ago? We’re not going to solve our problems by denying access to other Americans. We need to take on the challenge of the climate crisis now. Welcome to 2020. Happy New Year.