Your primary ballot choices could have more impact than you think

August 4 is almost here. Have you returned your primary election ballot yet?

Several weeks ago, the 120-page local voter’s pamphlet came in the mail. We soon discovered the reason for its size: exceptionally large fields of candidates in many races. We have 36 choices for governor, 19 candidates for the 10th Congressional District race.

Washington is unusual. We have a “top two” open primary system. No matter how many candidates are vying in each race, only two will see their names on the November ballot — and they can be from the same party.

We also know that primary elections typically draw much lower voter turnout than the November general election. In the last presidential election year, 2016, only 37% of registered voters turned in their primary ballots. In the general election, that number shot to 78%.

Consider this: In a crowded primary field, and with low voter turnout, candidates might advance to the general election with a surprisingly small number of votes. Perhaps some of us discount the worth of participating in a primary. We don’t enjoy plowing through all those candidate statements. We’ll just vote in the November election — that’s the one with high interest, including the choice for President.

But the primary election controls which choices we’ll have in November. If we think the end result is important, we ignore this preliminary step at our peril.

Let’s look at the 10th Congressional District contest. That race is for an “open seat,” since incumbent U.S. Rep. Denny Heck is running instead for Lt. Governor. So 19 candidates stepped up; read their statements in the voters pamphlet. Now what?

One way to see who’s a serious contender is old but valid advice: follow the money. I looked at the Federal Election Commission website. Three candidates have each raised over $500,000. Two other candidates are in the neighborhood of $200,000. Three others are in the range of $25,000 to $70,000. Finally, five candidates show amounts up to a few thousand dollars each.

Here’s an open question: What percentage of the primary votes will it take for a candidate to advance to November? In other words, what will it take to be the second-place finisher? Nobody knows.

Let’s speculate. My guess is that it might be possible to finish in the top two with 25% of the primary vote. Make you own guess here; perhaps we can compare notes after the results come in.

So 37% of registered voters turned in primary ballots four years ago. In 2018, the returns were 39%. Let’s estimate that 40% will vote this time. In that case — and with my guess above — a candidate might make the general election with support from just 10% of registered voters. See why voting in primary elections is important?

A friend of mine who is smarter than I has been looking at lots of data. He notes that nationwide turnout by young voters (the 18-29 age group) increased dramatically between 2014 and 2018. He also looked at a recent annual period in Thurston County. Nearly 20% of new registered voters were 18-21 years old. Will these young voters be a significant factor in this election? Will messaging on social media sites have more influence than traditional campaign yard signs, mailers, TV ads, and endorsements?

You’re likely to be reading this just a few days before election day, Aug. 4. If you haven’t voted yet, there’s still time. In fact, you can even register — and vote — as late as election day. Go to the Thurston County Auditor’s website for details.