Young people in Thurston County trying to fly the nest often have nowhere to land

When the youth of our community fly the nest, we like to think of them quickly finding a home of their own. In reality, they often find themselves in the housing market of hard knocks.

Many struggle to find affordable housing, with triple-digit rent increases and expensive home prices outpacing their wages. While some Baby Boomers complain that Millennials don’t want to work, this “failure to launch” has less to do with work ethic and far more to do with the cost of housing.

Competition for affordable housing is keen, and young people must vie for apartments or homes to buy with older folks who often have higher incomes and stronger credit histories. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from 2021 shows nearly half (44.4%) of all employees earning the federal minimum wage are between ages 16 to 24. In Washington state, that minimum wage is $15.74 per hour. Yet the National Low Income Housing Coalition reports that our state’s “housing wage,” or the amount needed to afford decent housing and pay for other essentials, is double that — $31.33 per hour.

In short, many young people are flying the nest with nowhere to land. Buying a home has been the core of the American dream. But the Census Bureau reports that roughly 38% of people 35 and under are able to become first-time home buyers, less than half the rate of owner-occupants who are 65 and over. According to the Pew Research Center, “70% of Americans said young adults today have a harder time buying a home than their parents’ generation did.”

The tough math for homebuyers is pretty clear. In February, the Olympian cited the average home price at $475,000, according to Northwest MLS. First-time homebuyers first pay a down payment, typically 20%, or $95,000, and then have a monthly mortgage over $2,000, depending on interest rate and term. And qualifying for mortgages can be difficult given the significantly higher school loan debts typically carried by recent college graduates.

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, says it’s tough for young people to afford a home without family assistance. “I think it just becomes an environment of haves and have-nots in the housing market: those who are able to rely on an intergenerational transfer of wealth versus those who are essentially being left behind and out of homeownership.”

This leaves the majority, over 60% of young adults, searching for affordable rental apartments. Here in Thurston County, the average rent is $1,484 per month, with a 2.5% vacancy rate limiting supply, according to the Thurston Regional Planning Council. Given the percentage of young people making minimum wage, more than half of their monthly income of $2,728 would go toward housing. Community Youth Services (CYS) reports that many young renters pay 50% to 80% of their income on housing. CYS has provided critically needed housing assistance for over 600 young adults ages 18-24. But not everyone gets into housing.

Those who can’t buy or rent housing are left to double-up, “couch-surf” or become homeless. A 2023 report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation reports a staggering rate of homelessness nationwide: “1 in 30 youth between the ages of 13 to 24 and 1 in 10 young adults between the ages of 18 to 25 will experience homelessness over the course of a year.” Locally, our county’s 2023 homeless census found 83 youth and young adults who were homeless, widely considered an undercount. Keylee Marineau, the county’s Homeless Response Program Manager, explained, “There are very few shelter options (30 beds total), especially for unaccompanied youth 17 and under who often end up on the streets until they can access shelter at 18.”

It’s a small wonder that many young adults don’t leave the nest. And perhaps the return of intergenerational households is part of the solution. A strong community starts with stable housing for all. Given that youth are the future, supporting their access to affordable housing would be a wise investment for everyone.

Anna Schlecht is retired from the City of Olympia where she worked on housing and homeless issues for several decades. This column is part of her year-long exploration of housing issues in our region.