State staffer explains the inexact science of salmon forecasts | The Olympian

Aaron Dufault of the state Department of Fish and Wildlife will talk about the science behind forecasting Puget Sound salmon runs Wednesday when he speaks at the meeting of the Olympia Chapter of Trout Unlimited.

DuFault is the agency’s pink, chum, sockeye salmon specialist and works each year with other fish biologists to estimate the number of salmon that will return to Puget Sound-area streams. That information is the baseline used as the state, tribal co-managers and federal officials set recreational, commercial and tribal fisheries.

He will talk about how most forecasts for the Puget Sound are constructed, starting from simple forecast models utilizing only adult-return data to more complex models which incorporate multiple environmental indicators along with juvenile out-migrant data to predict the number of returning salmon.

DuFault has a bachelor’s of science degree in aquatic and fishery sciences from the University of Washington, and a master’s of science degree from California State University Northridge, where he studied the effects of ocean acidification on juvenile corals.

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He has been with the state agency for four years.

There will be refreshments and a fishing equipment raffle after the presentation.

The meeting is 7 p.m. at the North Olympia Fire Station, 5046 Boston Harbor Road NE, Olympia.