Three Bold Predictions for Rockets-Lakers As Kevin Durant, LeBron James Clash in First Round
The basketball gods shined upon us with a matchup between the two active scoring leaders in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
LeBron James will lead the No. 4 seed Lakers against friendly foe Kevin Durant and the No. 5 seed Rockets. Although Los Angeles is the higher seed and holds home-court advantage, injuries to star guards Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves immediately swings the series in Houston's favor.
Dončić and Reaves combined for 56.8 points per game over the regular season, an incredible amount of points the Lakers need to make up for. The untimely injuries took the wind out of the red-hot Lakers' sails, but they were able to right the ship and end the season with some momentum in the form of three straight wins behind James.
The Rockets are in great form themselves, winners of nine of the past 10 games to close out the regular-season slate. In the first year with Durant, the core trio with Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson has flat-out worked. Houston's net rating of 5.4 is the best in the Western Conference after the top-tier Thunder and the Spurs. The biggest question out West is whether any team can dethrone Oklahoma City or San Antonio and halt a presumed Western Conference finals matchup between the top two seeds. The winner of the Rockets-Lakers series has a chance to spoil the party, especially if one or both of Dončić and Reaves can return should the Lakers prevail.
Oklahoma City would likely await the winner between Houston and L.A. Before any of that happens, however, Durant and James are set to battle in the playoffs for potentially the last time in their storied careers.
With a fun series ahead despite the Lakers' injury troubles, here are three bold predictions for the heavyweight bout between L.A. and Houston:
Luka Dončić returns at some point in the first-round series
Dončić's availability is the biggest question entering the first round. Earlier this week, JJ Redick said there isn't an update on the superstar guard as he recovers from a left hamstring strain and that he's out indefinitely, along with fellow star guard Austin Reaves.
On Thursday, ESPN's Dave McMenamin reported the Lakers have no expectation that either Dončić or Reaves will be available at any point during L.A.'s first-round series against the Rockets. The kicker is that the team hasn't ruled out the possibility of one or both of them becoming available the longer the series lasts.
That puts a lot on the shoulders of James and his supporting cast, but you can't simply look past the NBA's greatest scorer of all time, even at 41 years old. The Rockets are a much younger and more talented group, but Durant is no spring chicken himself. If age is a discussion point for one team's star, it has to be for the other. As for Dončić, the Lakers clearly have an astronomically higher chance of advancing with him on the floor. L.A. is 43–21 with him on the floor and 10–8 without. He led the league in scoring this year with 33.5 points per game and is the NBA's most creative player who also happened to drag a team to the Finals just two seasons ago.
Although Redick said Dončić is out indefinitely, the Lakers have been fairly non-committal about how long he will truly be out. The injury seems more week-to-week than day-to-day, but a stretched out playoff schedule helps his chances, especially if L.A. can steal a game early in the series. Should that be the case, you better believe Dončić will want to get out there as soon as possible as long as the team's medical staff buys in.
Kevin Durant hits a buzzer-beater to secure a win for Houston
Durant has provided us with many memorable playoff moments, why not one more?
At 37 years old, he remains one of the NBA's best clutch scorers. He had 146 points in clutch time over the regular season, which is behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić. Durant has done that on incredible efficiency too, shooting 41.9% on three-pointers in the clutch. He's 52.9% from the floor, which is the best shooting percentage among the group.
He rises to the occasion when the drama is at its highest point. He hit a game-winning three at the buzzer against the Suns early January and had an ice-cold celebration to tell his former team to get up out of there. A matchup against James and the Lakers is right up there with heavy drama, which is a recipe for Durant to come up with a moment to remember.
The LeBron James-led Lakers push the Rockets to seven games
Once upon a time, the Lakers were humming as the NBA's hottest team. They lost just two games over the month of March and looked to be a true threat to at least make things interesting against the Western Conference's powers in the Thunder and the Spurs.
The Dončić and Reaves injuries certainly changed things as L.A. dropped three straight games including a disappointing loss to the lowly Mavericks. The Lakers ended the regular season strong, though, with three straight wins off brilliant play from James who earned Western Conference player of the week honors. Postseason basketball is a different beast, however, especially without your two top scorers.
The Lakers won two out of three over the Rockets in the regular season, all games where Dončić was available. A heavy dose of Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard and Jake LaRavia will be needed at least initially, but James's recent heater gives L.A. a good chance to keep the series competitive until one or both of its star guards become healthy. Houston won nine of 10 games to close the regular season, so it won't be easy for L.A. to stay afloat, but James and Durant should exchange punches early in the series. Houston certainly has the upper hand and should win the series with L.A.'s injury woes, but it doesn't have a walk in the park either.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Three Bold Predictions for Rockets-Lakers As Kevin Durant, LeBron James Clash in First Round.
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This story was originally published April 17, 2026 at 5:05 PM.