Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's 2026 World Cup Chances
In less than 50 days, the 2026 FIFA World Cup will kick off and the U.S. men's national team will find itself with face-to-face with Group D foes Paraguay, Australia and Türkiye.
Despite disappointing losses to Belgium and Portugal in the March international window, all signs are pointing to a strong outing for the Stars and Stripes this summer. Not only will they enter the grand stage with more experience under their belts-at least 12 players on the roster competed in the 2022 World Cup-but also, nearly all of their superstars are peaking at just the right time.
Both strikers Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi have struck upon goalscoring machines for their clubs as of late, combining for 13 goals since mid-February to surge for AS Monaco and PSV Eindhoven, respectively. Weston McKennie is also having a career-best season in the midfield, a consistently-reliable force for Juventus.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner is even making a last-minute bid, eager to prove to USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino that he is just as worthy of the starting role between the sticks as he was back in 2022.
Even if the U.S.'s star front man, Christian Pulisic, can't shake out of his goal-less slump, the Americans might just be able to hold their own.
The Opta supercomputer has been whirring away, with predictions for the USMNT's World Cup run this summer.
Supercomputer Predicts USMNT's Odds at World Cup Success
Group Stage
The U.S.-ranked No. 16 globally heading into the summer-opens group play against No. 40 Paraguay on June 12 in Los Angeles. The Americans then fly north to Seattle to clash with No. 27 Australia, before returning to Los Angeles to conclude the opening stage against last-minute qualifier, No. 22. Türkiye.
Although considered to be the group stage favorite, the USMNT was only given a 33.00% chance of winning out Group D. Türkiye is closest behind with a 28.81% chance.
Fortunately, given the expanded tournament format, the top-two teams in each group automatically move on to the knockout round, as well as eight third place teams.
| Nation | Chances of Winning Group Stage |
|---|---|
| U.S. | 33.00% |
| Türkiye | 28.81% |
| Paraguay | 20.66% |
| Australia | 17.53% |
Knockout Stages
This edition of the World Cup is the first to include the expanded format of 48 competing teams, thus requiring a round of 32. Opta was unable to generate analytics for the percent chance of every team reaching the round of 32, likely due to the added component of having a select eight third-place teams also advance, a factor that will be determined by the much more specific results within the games themselves: highest total points, followed by goal difference and goals scored.
Nevertheless, the USMNT was given a 26.78% chance of finishing in second place in Group D, so by adding the USMNT's second-place likelihood to its first-place likelihood, the squad has a 59.78% chance of automatically qualifying for the Round of 32.
The U.S. was given a 41.97% chance of advancing to the round of 16, a feat they achieved for the sixth time in World Cup history in 2022.
| Chances of Qualifying for | USMNT |
|---|---|
| Round of 32 | 59.78% |
| Round of 16 | 41.97% |
After that, Opta predicts the country's chances of success to fall drastically, with just a 19.66% chance of advancing to the quarterfinals. Of the six occasions in which the Americans competed in the round of 16, they only won that stage once, defeating Germany 1–0 in 2002 to reach the quarterfinals.
The Stars and Stripes have just a 8.32% chance of advancing to the semifinals, a poor sign for Pochettino, who recently expressed his ambition of making a historic semifinal run-a stage they reached only once prior, in the inaugural, 13-team 1930 World Cup.
The U.S. was given a 3.30% chance of advancing to the World Cup final, a momentous stage the squad has never before experienced, and 1.22% chance of winning it all. It's small odds of earning global glory, but existent nonetheless. In comparison, the top teams of Spain and France have a 15.63% and 13.04% chance, respectively, of bringing home the winner's trophy.
| Chances of Qualifying for | USMNT |
|---|---|
| Quarterfinals | 19.66% |
| Semifinals | 8.32% |
| FInal | 3.30% |
| Winning Out | 1.22% |
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This story was originally published April 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM.