Commentary | Raleigh injury won't sink Mariners now, but World Series not possible without him

On Thursday, as Cal Raleigh landed on the injured list for the first time in his accomplished career, I kept coming back to the same sad scene.

It was Oct. 20, 2025, and Raleigh stood in a cramped and melancholic clubhouse. Minutes earlier, the Mariners’ season - Raleigh’s record-breaking season - had abruptly ended, trampled by the bullish Toronto Blue Jays. When Julio Rodríguez swung through an 88-mph slider to seal Seattle’s 4-3 loss, Raleigh was left standing on deck.

Now, he was standing still as a statue, arms crossed, eyes red and watering, whispered words splitting the silence.

“It was a great team effort. I love every guy in this room,” said Raleigh, whose 65 regular-season and playoff home runs were the most in American League history. “But ultimately it’s not what we wanted. I hate to use the word ‘failure,’ but it’s a failure. That’s what we expected, to get to a World Series and win a World Series. That’s what the standard is, and that’s what we want to hold ourselves accountable to.”

The 2026 Mariners can’t get to or win a World Series without Raleigh.

Not a record-breaking Raleigh. They don’t need the 29-year-old catcher to rediscover his impossible pace. They don’t need miracles or daily dingers. They don’t need the people’s MVP.

But they need him to be a heck of a lot better than he’s been.

Which is one of the worst hitters in baseball, as hard as that is to believe.

Through 44 games, Raleigh has the second-worst batting average (.161) in MLB. He also has the fourth-lowest on-base percentage (.243), the 10th-lowest OPS (.560) and the ninth-highest strikeout percentage (31.5%). His batting average has been above .200 for just three of those 44 games. This isn’t a blip. It’s an iceberg.

There are plenty of possible reasons for that regression. Like Raleigh’s abbreviated spring training, as he participated in the World Baseball Classic. Or the ridiculous WBC handshake controversy with Mariners teammate Randy Arozarena, an unwanted distraction weeks before the season. Or the spotlight and sponsorships that come with sudden superstardom. Or, most recently, the right-oblique injury that has hounded Raleigh the past two weeks.

Not coincidentally, those have been the worst weeks of Raleigh’s career. The sixth-year slugger endured an 0-for-38 slump with 17 strikeouts and five walks in parts of 10 games. The reigning Home Run Derby champion and MVP runner-up became a black hole in the Mariners lineup.

So, though there’s never a good time to go on the IL, fans have to hope A) for a rapid recovery, and B) that this is what both Raleigh and the Mariners need.

Besides, this division isn’t going anywhere. At 22-21, the Athletics lead the 22-23 Mariners by just one game in an unimposing AL West. Entering Thursday, Seattle was the only team in the division with a positive run differential. The Astros - who won seven division titles, four pennants and two World Series between 2017 and 2024 - are a floating ghost of their former glory. After Thursday’s 8-3 win, the Mariners are 7-1 against Houston this season alone.

Zoom out farther, and just two AL teams - the 28-14 Tampa Bay Rays and 27-17 New York Yankees - are at least five games above .500. The rebuilt Blue Jays are 19-24. The Red Sox are 18-25. The Detroit Tigers, who Seattle outlasted in last October’s ALDS, are 19-25. The league’s supposed heavyweights can barely bench the bar.

So, though oblique injuries can be complicated to overcome, Raleigh probably has time to get healthy. Particularly because the Mariners’ 3.63 ERA sits tied for sixth in MLB. Their 2.48 walks per nine innings are also best in baseball. And though Seattle’s bullpen is missing an array of injured arms (Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Carlos Vargas), how many teams can claim six capable starting pitchers?

At their best, the 2026 Mariners have a higher ceiling than the team that nearly toppled Toronto. But they’ve so rarely been at their best. Their defense is spotty. They’re hitting just .220 with runners in scoring position, 28th in MLB. Veteran starter Luis Castillo and All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz have produced erratic results. They’ve yet to be more than one game above .500 and have won consecutive series only once. Sustainable momentum has been a mirage. And now, their catcher and clubhouse leader is headed to the injured list.

But this team is talented enough to tread water without Raleigh, then make a run.

“We’re all thinking about Cal right now,” catcher Mitch Garver said on the Mariners’ broadcast after hitting a two-run homer Thursday. “We’d love for him to be healthy and in our lineup and doing what he does. But the show must go on. So somebody’s got to do it, and I’m going to fill in and (Jhonny Pereda’s) going to be here, and we’re going to do our best to keep the train moving. We’ve got a good team.”

They’ve got a good enough team to survive this stretch.

But to get to or win a World Series - to meet their standard - the Mariners need a reliable, raking Raleigh.

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This story was originally published May 14, 2026 at 5:05 PM.