Sports

7 Teams With Best Chance to Make College Football Playoff for First Time in 2026

By Steven Lassan Athlon Sports

Updated May 21, 2026 6:03 AM

Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, 27 different programs have earned a trip to the expanded championship field. And with the shift to the 12-team setup in '24, along with the ongoing debate surrounding expansion to 16 or even 24 teams in the future, the number of different programs making the College Football Playoff should grow in the coming seasons.

In last season's 12-team setup, six teams - Miami, Texas A&M, James Madison, Tulane, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss - made their first appearance in the playoff. Having another six teams make their playoff debut in '26 might be a reach. However, college football doesn't have a shortage of candidates looking for their first trip to the playoff in '26. USC and BYU headline the top teams, with Louisville, Florida, Oklahoma State, Houston, and Virginia Tech in the next category.

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Which teams have the best chance to make the CFB Playoff for the first time in '26? Here are seven candidates:

BYU has been on the door step of the playoff with a No. 17 finish in the selection committee's rankings 2024 and again at No. 12 in ‘25. With 11 starters back, including quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, to go with a defense that should rank among the best in the Big 12, coach Kalani Sitake's program might have all of the pieces to break through in ‘26.

Although Texas Tech is the Big 12 title favorite, the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Brendan Sorsby has narrowed the gap at the top. BYU won't play the Red Raiders in the regular season, but Sitake's squad could fare better in a potential Big 12 Championship Game rematch after two blowout losses to Texas Tech last year. Also, with a favorable schedule, a run at an at-large berth in the field is within reach.

Outside of a receiving corps navigating significant turnover, Sitake's '26 team in Provo doesn't have many glaring concerns.

Don't let last year's 4-8 record fool you: Florida isn't hurting for talent. New coach Jon Sumrall is one of the offseason's top hires and landed two of the best coordinators by bringing aboard Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech to direct the offense, and SEC veteran Brad White from Kentucky to call the defense.

Sumrall and his staff should do a much better job at maximizing a roster that includes some of the SEC's top skill talent with running back Jadan Baugh and receivers Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The offense received a boost from the portal, as Eric Singleton (Georgia Tech) and Micah Mays (Wake Forest) add more talent and depth to the receiving corps, and Harrison Moore (Georgia Tech) should fill a key void along the offensive line at center.

Although the Gators exited spring with an ongoing quarterback battle between Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo and redshirt freshman Tramell Jones Jr., both players have flashed enough potential to have confidence that either will be solid under center. Also, the defense is primed for a step forward thanks to the emergence and continued development from young talent, including edge rusher Jayden Woods, end LJ McCray, and linebackers Aaron Chiles and Myles Graham.

A favorable schedule that includes home dates against Ole Miss and South Carolina, and Oklahoma provides a path to eight (or more victories).

The Cougars took a massive step forward last season, jumping from 4-8 in coach Willie Fritz's first year to 10-3 overall in ‘25.

The optimism for a run at a playoff spot starts on offense. Quarterback Conner Weigman thrived in his first season at Houston, averaging 261.9 total yards a game and scoring 36 overall touchdowns to lead a potent attack (29.1 points a contest). The senior has plenty of help at his disposal. Amare Thomas (67 catches) headlines one of the Big 12's top receiving corps, and the Cougars landed one of the top transfer running backs in former Oregon/Tulane standout Makhi Hughes. A retooled offensive line via the transfer portal is also poised to improve.

Carlos Allen Jr. and Eddie Walls III will be missed, but Houston's defense returns six starters from a group that limited teams to just 22.8 points a contest. Cornerback Will James (three interceptions) headlines a secondary that should rank among the best in the Big 12.

A Sept. 19 matchup at Texas Tech should give Fritz's team a good idea of where it stacks up in the Big 12. Also, a road date at Utah on Oct. 24 could be crucial to determining a spot in the Big 12 title game.

Miami is a heavy favorite to win the ACC in ‘26. However, Louisville has won at least nine games in each of its three seasons under coach Jeff Brohm and defeated the Hurricanes 24-21 on the road last year. The schedule provides an early opportunity for a huge non-conference win against Ole Miss in Nashville and huge home contests versus SMU, Pitt and Florida State in ACC play. It's possible the Cardinals are favored in double-digit games this year.

As usual with a Brohm-led squad, offense is the biggest reason for optimism. The Cardinals averaged nearly 30 points a contest (29.9 a game) in ‘25, but this unit could be even better this fall. Running back Isaac Brown ran for 1,173 yards and 11 touchdowns in ‘24 and was limited to 884 yards and seven scores due to injury last year. With Brown back to full strength, along with Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz expected to provide more consistency in the passing attack, Louisville's offense can be even more dynamic in ‘26. Vanderbilt transfer receiver Tre Richardson was another key portal acquisition to alleviate the loss of Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy on the outside.

New co-coordinators Mark Ivey and Steve Ellis inherit one of the ACC's top linebacker units, along with standout edge rusher Clev Lubin (13.5 TFL last year). With transfers ready to step up along the defensive front and in the secondary, this unit could be just as good as the ‘25 version that limited teams to 4.7 yards a play.

From 1-11 to a spot in the College Football Playoff? It could happen in Stillwater this year.

Change is the biggest storyline for Oklahoma State in ‘26. New coach Eric Morris arrives after a successful three-year stint at North Texas and brings the blueprint and impact transfers to already form one of the nation's top offenses in Stillwater..

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker (4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns), running back Caleb Hawkins (1,434 rushing yards and 25 scores), and receiver Wyatt Young (70 catches for 1,264 yards) headlined a Mean Green offense that averaged 45.1 points a game last season and followed Morris to Oklahoma State from the transfer portal. That trio should provide an instant spark for a Cowboys' attack that managed only 14.2 points per game last fall.

The biggest concerns for Morris rest with a transfer-heavy offensive line and defense. However, as usual in the Big 12, the schedule features its share of toss-up games. If the offense replicates similar production to the ‘25 version at North Texas, and the defense finds a way to get timely stops, the Cowboys can play their way into the Big 12 title game - and potentially the College Football Playoff.

After a 7-6 Big Ten debut in 2024, USC enters ‘26 on more stable footing following last year's 9-4 campaign. Entering coach Lincoln Riley's fifth season in charge, the Trojans seem primed for their best run at the playoff since the ‘22 campaign.

Scoring points is never a challenge for a Riley-coached offense. The ‘26 version must replace standout receivers Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane, but quarterback Jayden Maiava is back, and USC returns an experienced offensive line and one of the Big Ten's top running backfields with Waymond Jordan and King Miller.

Considering Riley's track record and success at building high-powered offenses, USC's playoff hopes hinge on one thing: Defense. How far this unit improves under new coordinator Gary Patterson will decide whether or not this team makes the 12-team field in the top-heavy Big Ten. This unit has allowed 5.7 yards a snap in Big Ten play in back-to-back seasons. However, the front looks deeper and more talented than in recent years. Iowa State transfer cornerback Jontez Williams was also a huge pickup to solidify the secondary.

The schedule is arguably the biggest obstacle to a playoff spot. USC hosts Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State and plays road games at Indiana, Wisconsin, and Penn State.

The Hokies haven't finished a season ranked in the top 25 since 2017 and have only two winning records over the last eight years. With the arrival of James Franklin as the program's new coach, those trends should end in the near future - perhaps as early as ‘26.

Franklin's first team in Blacksburg faces a tricky schedule that includes an intriguing non-conference battle at Maryland on Sept. 19, along with road dates in ACC play against California, Clemson, SMU, and Miami.

Although Franklin retooled the roster through the portal, the foundation already features 14 returning starters (most of any team in the ACC). Included in Franklin's first transfer haul in Blacksburg was a handful of his former Penn State players, including quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer and tight end Luke Reynolds. Although Brent Pry was dismissed as the program's head coach during a disappointing ‘25 season, returning to work under Franklin (his old Penn State boss) is a boost to the defense.

For Virginia Tech to make a run at the playoff, solidifying the offensive line and revamping the defensive front headline the list of offseason priorities for Franklin.

This story was originally published May 21, 2026 at 5:45 AM.

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