Baker Mayfield and the Bucs Are Taking a Huge Risk That Could Cost Them Millions

Baker Mayfield's tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers started with a one-year, prove-it deal worth up to $6 million dollars back in 2023.

Taking on the daunting role of following in Tom Brady's footsteps, Mayfield's impressive play that season was enough to convince the Bucs he was worthy of a new three-year contract worth up to $100 million, entrenching him as their franchise quarterback.

Now, both parties are heading into the final year of that deal without a new extension, putting millions of dollars on the line as they wait for the short-term future to decide the long-term direction of the franchise.

Baker Mayfield's Second Season in Tampa Bay Was a Huge Win

The first year of that new three-year deal was absolute dynamite, with Mayfield putting up the best numbers of his career. He threw for 4,500 yards and tied for the league lead with 41 touchdown passes, leading the Bucs to a 10-7 record and their fourth straight NFC South title.

Despite breaking in a first-year offensive coordinator in Liam Coen, Mayfield had the Bucs humming on offense. The team finished in the top five in the league in just about every offensive category, including scoring, passing, rushing, and yards per play. It was instant validation that Tampa Bay had made the right choice by giving Mayfield the long-term contract.

Even with the massive raise, Mayfield still proved to be a bargain at around $33 million per year, given his level of play relative to other starting quarterbacks who were making way more money.

Injuries, Inconsistency Marred Baker Mayfield's 2025 Campaign with the Bucs

Last year was a complete different story for Mayfield, thanks in large part to significant injuries suffered throughout the entire offense. The offensive line was hit with big absences early and often across the entire starting lineup, and what should have been a star-studded receiving corps was thinned out by multiple serious injuries throughout the year.

Later in the season, Mayfield's own injuries started to pile up. Though he didn't miss a single start, Mayfield's play showed clear decline down the stretch, and it was reflected in the fact that Tampa Bay lost seven of their last eight games. After a stellar 6-2 start that saw Mayfield playing at an MVP level, the Bucs' epic collapse late in the year cost them a fifth straight division championship, as well as a playoff spot.

There were plenty of reasons why the Bucs struggled in the second half of the season, but Mayfield's erratic play was definitely one of them. Injuries are inevitable in football, and they kept Mayfield and the entire team from living up to their full potential in 2025.

It's Make or Break for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in 2026

Both parties are taking a huge risk by heading into the 2026 season without another long-term deal in place.

For the Bucs, there's no long-term security at the game's most important position. Everyone at One Buc Place has made it clear they believe in Mayfield as their franchise quarterback, but actions (and money) speak louder than words, and the team hasn't made another long-term investment to make sure he remains in that spot beyond this season.

Especially after last year's late-season struggles, it's likely the Bucs could have gotten Mayfield to sign a similar deal to the one he got last time around, with perhaps a small pay raise ($35 million per year, or thereabouts). That number would be a bargain if Mayfield is able to return to his 2024 level of play. But without that new deal in place, if Mayfield delivers those kinds of numbers in 2026, it would likely take something in the $50 million per year range to keep him on a new long-term extension.

Mayfield is taking his own gamble, too. Sure, he could earn a massive payday next offseason if he's able to stay healthy and put together another big year like he did a couple of seasons ago. But another down year, especially with injuries, and he could head into another offseason looking for a one-year deal to go prove himself with a new team (he's probably tired of that at this point).

This Can Still Be a Win-Win Situation for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs

Tampa Bay's ownership has already made it clear they won't mind paying top dollar to keep Mayfield long-term if he delivers another big year. That makes sense, considering how much the salary cap continues to expand, making it easier for teams to spend big money for quality quarterback play.

One reason Mayfield could see a return to that 2024 form is the arrival of another new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, who comes from the same coaching tree that produced Coen. Though there are sure to be some differences in Robinson's approach, many of the same Sean McVay-style concepts and foundational principles are likely to return, giving Mayfield an opportunity to produce at a high level again if he's able to stay healthy.

Yes, the Bucs had some big departures this offseason (such as future Hall of Famers Mike Evans and Lavonte David), but they also made some significant additions on both sides of the ball, adding both quality veterans and promising rookies. If they can stay healthier and live up to their full potential on both sides of the ball, there's no reason why the Bucs can't get back into the playoff hunt this year, with Mayfield earning another well-deserved big contract in the offseason to keep him Tampa Bay for years to come.

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This story was originally published May 27, 2026 at 4:01 AM.