Aaron Judge's Injury Threatens to Derail Yankee's MVP Streak

The annual debate over the Most Valuable Player award is often shaped around which player is the best, and which player adds the most value to his team. Those concepts aren’t necessarily in conflict, though sometimes they are.

In 2012, Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera finished first in American League MVP voting. Angels rookie Mike Trout finished second.

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Cabrera voters pointed to his “Triple Crown” after he became the first player to lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs since 1967. No player has done so since. Trout voters pointed to his superior Wins Above Replacement totals via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs (he was worth three more wins than Cabrera according to both websites, mostly on account of his stellar defense in center field).

More importantly, Trout accrued more WAR than Cabrera despite playing 22 fewer games. He began the season in Triple-A. The Angels were 6-14 when they promoted him to the majors on April 28, and went 83-59 the rest of the way.

The Yankees were without two-time defending MVP Aaron Judge for the final three innings of their May 31 game against the A’s because of a nagging right shoulder injury Sunday in West Sacramento. They will be without him again June 2 against the Cleveland Guardians, and perhaps longer, after imaging revealed a bone bruise in his shoulder.

Who are the Yankees in 2026 without Judge? They’re about to find out.

Framing the MVP debate around how the Yankees are affected by Judge’s absence is an interesting thought experiment. Still, the number of games he will miss might not cost him as much as the games he played.

In May, Judge slashed .243/.368/.437. By Judge's lofty standards, those numbers are downright poor. His slugging percentage was closer to the MLB average (.396) than his career mark (.611).

A likely explanation: manager Aaron Boone told reporters in New York that Judge had been dealing with soreness in his right shoulder for weeks.

Overall, Judge is still having an excellent season by most standards, slashing .248/.375/.533 with 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. He's on pace for a 6-WAR season. But he is already trailing Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt in FanGraphs’ version of WAR by more than a full win. Judge is trailing Witt and teammate Cody Bellinger by the same margin in Baseball Reference’s version of the stat.

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No player has won an MVP award in three consecutive seasons since San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds did so from 2001-04. Judge’s chances of doing the same are fading, if not faded entirely. Voters tend to frame the MVP debate more around WAR now than they did when Cabrera and Trout topped the 2012 ballot.

Judge is effectively irreplaceable in any lineup, but one wonders if some time off to heal his shoulder would benefit the Yankees in the long run.

It remains to be seen if time off will help Judge’s statistics. But if the Yankees struggle without Judge - even a diminished version of him - his absence might affirm his status as the most valuable player to his team than anyone in the game.

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This story was originally published June 2, 2026 at 6:54 PM.