New England Patriots Tumble in ESPN's FPI Despite Super Bowl Appearance

The New England Patriots made unfortunate history in ESPN’s Football Power Index by becoming the first team to sit outside the top 10 of the initial rankings after making the Super Bowl in the season prior.

In the newest FPI the Patriots sit at No. 14 behind teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, whom New England defeated in the divisional round of the playoffs last season en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

Why? In part because New England’s 2025 schedule featured the easiest strength of schedule in the league, which helps explain why led the league in EPA per play on offense and were 10th on defense.

“The Patriots’ postseason schedule was also fortuitous, as they faced the Chargers, Texans and Bo Nix-less Broncos,” ESPN noted, despite ranking the Chargers and Texans ahead of the Patriots.

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“On the other hand, this is not the same Patriots team as a year ago — especially not after acquiring wide receiver A.J. Brown. The former Eagles star gives a lift to the best and most important part of this Patriots team: the passing offense,” ESPN added.

The Patriots have a 6.7% and 2.7% chance to get back to, and win, the Super Bowl, respectively.

Within the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Texans, Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville all have a better chance of making the Super Bowl than the Patriots.

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This story was originally published June 3, 2026 at 9:25 AM.