Why San Diego State enters the Pac-12 as a conference contender
The new Pac-12 officially launched on July 1, bringing to reality several decades of dreaming and hoping by the San Diego State Aztecs and their fans.
The start of the first football season in the new league is just two months away, so it's not too early to start looking at how the Aztecs are positioned in the league.
Last year's 9-4 finish, including their first bowl invitation in three seasons, seemingly gave the Aztecs some momentum heading into their Pac-12 debut. But as everyone knows, the transfer portal can drastically alter a team's trajectory each season. There are areas where the Aztecs have a lot of work to do, like in the defensive secondary and on the offensive line, but the Aztecs are determined to make a good showing in their new league.
Of course, more than half of the Pac-12's eight football-playing teams came from the Mountain West: SDSU, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah. That sets up the Aztecs well in terms of familiarity from recent competition.
SDSU was in control of its own destiny late last season, needing only to win at New Mexico to host the MW title game. But it lost in double overtime to finish in a four-way tie atop the MW at 6-2 with BSU and two teams that are staying behind, UNLV and New Mexico. Computer metrics and tiebreakers sent BSU and UNLV into the conference title game, with BSU winning.
Fresno State tied for fifth with Hawaii - which is also staying behind - at 5-3, Utah State was seventh at 4-4 and Colorado State was last at 1-7.
The Aztecs beat Boise State and Colorado State at home in the regular season and pitched a shutout at Fresno State. They missed Utah State.
This season, the Aztecs host Fresno State and Utah State, and travel to face Colorado State and Boise State, the preseason league favorite.
Washington State and Oregon State are the two legacy teams remaining in the Pac-12.
SDSU and WSU will play for the third year in a row, at Snapdragon Stadium on Oct. 31. The Cougars routed the Aztecs in Pullman in the second game last season and rallied from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to win in San Diego two seasons ago.
As for the Beavers, they will host the Aztecs on Oct. 10 in the third matchup between the teams in the last four seasons. The Beavers have won five straight in the series.
Texas State is the only unknown entity. The Aztecs and Bobcats have never met before, which will make for an interesting Pac-12 lid-lifter for the teams on Oct. 3 at Snapdragon Stadium.
And now, some early predictions
A number of outlets have published power rankings/predictions, and the Aztecs are predicted to come in second by most of them.
Nick Kosko of on3.com picks the Aztecs to come in second behind BSU.
"Sean Lewis' record (12-13) is not totally indicative of what this program can become under his watch. Now in the Pac-12, the Aztecs measure out to be the second-best team in the conference this year," Kosko predicts.
He cites the return of Jayden Denegal at quarterback and Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington at running back, plus the addition of offensive lineman Evan Lawrence from national champion Indiana.
Mountain West Connection predicts the Aztecs to finish second behind Boise State, at 8-4 overall and 5-2 in the Pac-12.
"The Aztecs are coming off a season where they showed significant improvement. They will be solid in the trenches and should have one of the best rushing attacks in the West," Zach Ballard wrote.
"However, there are still concerns at the quarterback position and a tough out-of-conference schedule that features UCLA and James Madison leaves some room for concern. If the Aztecs can win three or four of their OOC games, they should be among the favorites for a spot in the playoff," Ballard concluded.
ESPN's Bill Connelly also predicts the Aztecs to finish second behind BSU, based on his predictive formula known as SP+.
Connelly thinks the offensive identity will remain the same behind Denegal and Sutton.
"Defense and special teams were so good last year that SDSU ranked 43rd overall in SP+ with minimal offense. I'm not sure they'll hit those heights again, but it would be a surprise if the Aztecs weren't involved in the conference race," Connelly wrote.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/san-diego-state as Why San Diego State enters the Pac-12 as a conference contender.
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This story was originally published July 6, 2026 at 9:58 AM.