Pac-12 picks: Sorry for doubting you, Colorado
As you may have heard, there were a pair of miracle covers by Pac-12 teams last week. Stanford, who I picked to cover a 3-point spread against UCLA, did so with a fumble-return touchdown on the game’s final play. And Arizona State, who I did not pick to cover a 4-point spread against California, returned an onside kick for a touchdown in the final minute to win 51-41. So, call it a wash. (For some other examples of bad sports-betting beats, check out this column from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, passed along by Tacoma’s biggest Cal fan.)
Anyway, a wild week yielded a 3-3 against-the-spread record, which is fine. But I’ve got a reputation to uphold, so let’s make some better picks this week, eh? For the sake of simplicity, all lines will now come from the Associated Press wire, in conjunction with the Pac-12 picks contest being proctored this season by Sir Tim Booth. All lines are for entertainment purposes only. And my pick for the Washington game will come in a separate post on ... well, later today, since the game is on Friday this week.
Last week: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread.
Overall: 33-6 straght up, 15-15-2 against the spread.
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SATURDAY
Oregon State at Colorado, 11:30 a.m., Pac-12 Networks (Colorado by 18.5) -- I’m so sorry, Colorado. I’m sorry for assuming backup quarterback Steven Montez couldn’t cover a 10.5-point spread against Oregon in Eugene. I’m sorry for assuming Colorado could not beat Oregon in Eugene straight-up. As a token of my regret, please accept this week’s prediction. The pick: Colorado 52, Oregon State 31.
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Utah at California, 3 p.m., Pac-12 Networks (Cal by 2.5) -- This is a bit of a curious point spread, though I can see why oddsmakers might try to cash in on the public’s perception that the Bears can win a shootout with a less-than-stellar Utah offense. But I still think the Utes’ defense is solid enough to keep Utah unbeaten. And Troy Williams should have fun against that Cal defense. The pick: Utah 34, California 28.
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Arizona State at USC, 5:30 p.m., FOX (USC by 10) -- The Trojans have lost six of their last seven games against power-conference teams, so seeing them as a double-digit favorite against an unbeaten Pac-12 team is a bit surprising, even if ASU’s 4-0 is not a particularly impressive 4-0. Do the Sun Devils have what it takes to win in the Coliseum? I’ll hedge and say no, but I simply cannot trust USC to cover that point spread. The pick: USC 38, ASU 31.
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Oregon at Washington State, 6:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks (Oregon by 2) -- Think the Ducks’ home loss last week to Colorado may have hinted at the end of an era? Just wait until Oregon loses to the Cougars for the second consecutive season. The pick: Washington State 45, Oregon 42.
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Arizona at UCLA, 7:30 p.m., ESPN (UCLA by 13.5) -- This feels like the kind of game in which UCLA unloads all the frustration it must have felt in last week’s close call against Stanford. Arizona is perilously thin at the running back position for a team that likes to run the ball after J.J. Taylor broke his ankle last week (Nick Wilson, the No. 1 back, hasn’t played the last two weeks but could conceivably return on Saturday). Unless Wilson returns and/or Brandon Dawkins gets loose like he did against Washington, I like the Bruins to cover somewhat comfortably. The pick: UCLA 42, Arizona 24.
This story was originally published September 29, 2016 at 12:32 PM with the headline "Pac-12 picks: Sorry for doubting you, Colorado."